The 2026 FIFA World Cup is beginning to take shape after an action-packed opening round of matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico. While there is still a long way to go before the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, Opta’s Supercomputer has already updated its projections and identified the teams most likely to lift football’s biggest prize. Traditional heavyweights dominate the upper reaches of the rankings, but there are also a few nations hoping to upset the established order. From Belgium at number 12 to tournament favourites France at number one, here are the 12 teams with the best chance of becoming world champions according to Opta’s latest predictions.
12. Belgium (2.04%)
Belgium may no longer possess the golden generation that dominated headlines for much of the last decade, but they remain a dangerous team. The Red Devils still boast considerable quality throughout the squad and have enough experience to challenge top nations. A draw against Egypt was not the ideal start, but there is plenty of time to recover. Their chances of lifting the trophy remain respectable compared to many rivals.
11. Colombia (2.25%)
Colombia’s convincing 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan underlined why many observers consider them a potential dark horse. The South Americans play with confidence, intensity and attacking flair, making them entertaining to watch. Their squad contains a blend of experienced internationals and emerging talents eager to make their mark. If they maintain their current form, they could exceed expectations.
10. United States (2.82%)
The United States have made a statement on home soil after thrashing Paraguay 4-1 in their opening match. Mauricio Pochettino’s influence is already becoming evident as the team plays with greater confidence and attacking intent. Backed by huge crowds and familiar conditions, the Americans believe they can enjoy their best World Cup campaign in decades. Their chances remain slim compared to the favourites, but optimism is growing rapidly.
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9. Netherlands (3.22%)
The Netherlands remain among the most respected footballing nations despite their frustrating draw against Japan. Traditionally one of the strongest tournament teams, the Dutch possess quality throughout the pitch and a proven ability to compete under pressure. While their odds have slipped slightly, they remain firmly in the conversation as potential contenders. Few teams would welcome facing them in the knockout rounds.
8. Norway (4.70%)
Norway’s rise into the top ten has been fuelled by an exciting generation led by Erling Haaland. The Manchester City striker was in devastating form during the opening win over Iraq, scoring twice in a commanding performance. For a nation with limited World Cup history, expectations have risen dramatically in recent years. If their star players continue to deliver, Norway could become one of the stories of the tournament.
7. Brazil (5.48%)
Brazil entered the World Cup hoping to end a 24-year wait for another title, but their opening draw against Morocco was far from ideal. Even so, the five-time world champions remain one of the most feared teams in international football. Their squad is packed with world-class talent capable of producing moments of brilliance at any time. No team with Brazil’s history and quality can ever be discounted.
6. Germany (6.51%)
Germany sent a powerful message to the rest of the field with a remarkable 7-1 victory over Curacao. Julian Nagelsmann’s side looked sharp, organised and ruthless throughout the contest. After a disappointing period in recent tournaments, there is renewed belief surrounding the national team. If they continue to perform at that level, Germany could quickly emerge as genuine title favourites.
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5. Portugal (7.04%)
Portugal may not have fully convinced during their draw against DR Congo, but they remain one of the strongest squads in the competition. Cristiano Ronaldo continues to command attention, even as younger stars increasingly take centre stage. The Portuguese possess depth, technical quality and experience in every area of the pitch. Those attributes make them serious contenders despite an underwhelming start.
4. England (10.32%)
England’s emphatic 4-2 victory over Croatia provided the perfect start to their World Cup campaign. Thomas Tuchel’s side looked dangerous going forward and showed the attacking quality that many believe can finally end the country’s long wait for success. Expectations are once again enormous as supporters dream of a first World Cup triumph since 1966. On current evidence, England have every reason to believe they can challenge for the trophy.
3. Argentina (12.23%)
Argentina arrived in North America as defending champions and remain firmly among the favourites. Lionel Messi rolled back the years with a stunning hat-trick against Algeria, reminding the football world of his enduring brilliance. Lionel Scaloni’s side combines experience, quality and a winning mentality forged during recent triumphs. The possibility of becoming the first nation since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend the World Cup remains very real.
2. Spain (12.85%)
Spain may have surrendered top spot after a surprising draw against Cape Verde, but they remain one of the most complete teams in the tournament. Their possession-based approach continues to dominate opponents and create chances in abundance. A single disappointing result has done little to diminish confidence in their ability to go all the way. Many still view La Roja as one of the strongest contenders for the crown.
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1. France (15.87%)
France sit at the top of Opta’s latest projections and currently have the best chance of becoming world champions. Didier Deschamps’ side were inspired by Kylian Mbappe during their impressive victory over Senegal, reinforcing their status as the team to beat. With world-class talent across every position, Les Bleus possess arguably the deepest squad in international football. If they continue to perform at this level, France will take some stopping on the road to New Jersey.
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