Uruguay left the World Cup with two points from three group games. Expected goals says they should have taken closer to five.
That is the gap logged by xGQuadrant after the group stage: two points earned against 5.05 expected, a deficit of 3.05 that made Marcelo Bielsa’s side the biggest underperformers by expected points in the whole competition.
“I think we deserved to win seven points from the three matches, but we leave with only two points,” Bielsa said after the exit, as carried by Fox Sports.
Draws with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde and a 1-0 loss to eventual champions Spain closed out a Group H campaign without a single victory.
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South Korea’s near-miss in Group A
South Korea’s story ran along similar lines.
Hong Myung-bo’s team banked three points from a projected 5.09 xPts, the second-largest gap of the group stage.
They beat the Czech Republic 2-1, then lost 1-0 to Mexico and 1-0 to South Africa. A draw against South Africa in Monterrey would have carried them into the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed sides.
Instead they produced their worst World Cup finish since 1998, and Hong stepped down soon after.
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Colombia’s Vancouver heartbreak
Colombia’s story flipped in the knockout round.
Néstor Lorenzo’s side had comfortably topped Group K with wins over Uzbekistan and DR Congo and a 0-0 draw with Portugal, scoring four goals from 4.29 xG across the three matches, before running into Switzerland in the last 16.
Then came Vancouver.
The round-of-16 tie against Switzerland at BC Place produced a combined xG of 0.7, the lowest normal-time total of any match at the tournament.
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Colombia had the better of what little there was: Gustavo Puerta forced Gregor Kobel into a save with a 21st-minute curler, and Jhon Lucumí headed against the crossbar in extra time.
When it went to penalties, Kobel saved from Cucho Hernández and Rubén Vargas put the Swiss through.
Mexico banked what no-one else could
The mirror image sat in Group A. Mexico turned 5.68 expected points into a full nine, a swing of +3.32 that ranked as the biggest overperformance of the group stage. Their scoreline read 10-3 from underlying figures of 6.66 and 3.87.
Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in East Rutherford on Sunday 19 July to close the tournament. On chance quality alone, Uruguay and South Korea were not the worst two teams that flew home in June.
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