Lamine Yamal has overtaken Kane in a market the Englishman had led through August and September. At William Hill, Yamal traded as short as 8/15 last week, with Kane drifting out to 5/4.
Both are now priced at 5/6 after Kane scored five goals in four international-break matches, including a two-goal performance for England earlier this week.
The twist is in the dates. Voting for the 2026 Ballon d’Or closed on 28 September, more than a week before the heaviest money came for Yamal. The jury of 100 journalists, one from each of the top 100 nations in the men’s FIFA ranking, submitted their ballots on a sliding scale of 15 points down to one.
Whatever moves the odds now cannot move a vote.
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Kane led the betting all summer
Kane’s 2025/26 was the kind of year that usually settles the argument. He finished with 73 goals in 65 appearances for club and country, the second-highest single-season total since the turn of the millennium behind Lionel Messi’s 82 in 2011/12.
Sixty-one of those came for Bayern Munich: 36 in the Bundesliga, 14 in the Champions League, 10 in the DFB-Pokal and one in the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup. Kane claimed a third straight Bundesliga Torjägerkanone and a second European Golden Shoe. Bayern took the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double.
England reached the FIFA World Cup third-place playoff and won it, their best finish at the tournament in 60 years. Kane added 12 international goals across the season.
William Hill moved him back level with Yamal at 5/6 on 7 October, after his international-break form.
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“It looks to be a proper two-horse race now, with Kylian Mbappe third in the betting at 16/1,” William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said.
Yamal played the full 120 minutes in the final
Yamal was on the pitch for all 120 minutes as Spain beat Argentina in the World Cup final on 19 July, the day the 70th edition’s eligibility window closed.
Barcelona took La Liga and he was named the division’s Player of the Season after 16 goals and 11 assists, the league’s top assist tally. Across all competitions he finished with 24 goals and 17 assists.
He is 19 years old.
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The ceremony starts at 8pm local time on Monday 26 October at the London Palladium, the first edition staged outside Paris. The defending men’s winner is Ousmane Dembélé.
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