Serie A 2025/26: Supercomputer Predicts the Final Table – Ranked

August 22, 2025 Aksel Kryhlmand

With the 2025–26 campaign ready to kick off, data experts at Opta have simulated the season 10,000 times to project how each team might perform. From Pisa’s uphill battle to Inter’s redemption arc, these predictions offer a detailed snapshot of who’s primed for glory—and who’s headed for trouble. Here’s your reverse top-tier list, starting with the team facing the bleakest outlook.

20. Pisa – A Tall Mountain to Climb

Back in the top flight for the first time since 1991, Pisa enter the season with a daunting task. With a league-worst average of 37.7 points and a 38.2% chance of relegation, their stay in Serie A may be short-lived unless they pull off some major surprises.

19. Cremonese – The Party Might Not Last

Promoted via the play-offs, Cremonese are tipped to struggle, averaging 37.8 points and facing a 37.4% chance of going down. Without significant reinforcement, they may not have the depth to survive a full Serie A campaign.

18. Lecce – A Familiar Fight for Survival

Lecce narrowly escaped the drop last year, but they're right back in the danger zone. Despite a gutsy Coppa Italia win and early goal from Krstovic, the supercomputer sees them finishing with 38.5 points and a 34.8% relegation chance.

17. Sassuolo – Firepower with Fragility

After topping Serie B with 25 wins and 78 goals, Sassuolo return to the top flight with momentum. Yet, the simulations aren’t optimistic, projecting 38.8 points, suggesting defensive gaps could undermine their attacking flair.

16. Hellas Verona – Danger Still Lurks

Last season’s narrow escape hasn’t reassured the model. Verona are forecast to finish just above the drop zone again, averaging 39.0 points, and must prove they’ve learned from last year’s brush with relegation.

15. Cagliari – Still Treading Water

Cagliari finished five points above safety last year and are expected to hover near that threshold again. With a projected 39.5 points, they remain vulnerable if results don’t go their way.

14. Parma – Middle of the Road Return

The newly promoted side is forecast to be competitive, with a predicted total of 41.9 points. They’re not safe yet, but have more leeway than their fellow newcomers—especially if they shore up at the back.

13. Udinese – Solid but Unspectacular

With 42.6 points on average, Udinese are expected to hold their ground but not much more. Stability remains their strength, though a lack of attacking flair may hold them back from pushing higher.

12. Genoa – Comfortably Mid-Table

Genoa enter the new season with cautious optimism, landing at 46.8 average points. They’re not likely to challenge for Europe, but their squad has enough to keep them away from danger.

11. Como – Surprise Package Potential

Projected at 48.4 points, Como are one of the season’s more intriguing teams. They’ll need consistency, but the data suggests a strong chance of comfortably avoiding the relegation scrap.

10. Torino – Mid-Table and Holding Steady

Torino may lack the fireworks of Serie A’s elite, but they’re consistent enough to land around 48.5 points. Unless they find an extra gear, they’re likely set for another season of holding their position.

9. Fiorentina – Knocking on Europe’s Door

With a 58.9-point average, Fiorentina are just outside the European places. A few key results could see them return to continental football, but they’ll need sharper execution in tight matches.

8. Bologna – A European Push Incoming

Fresh off their Coppa Italia win, Bologna are projected at 60.1 points and are expected to challenge for a Europa or Conference League spot. Not quite top-four material yet, but certainly rising.

7. Lazio – Outside Looking In

Lazio are forecast to average 61.8 points, placing them just outside the top six. Sarri’s return brings experience, but unless they tighten up defensively, they may once again fall short of the Champions League.

6. Milan – Big Names, Big Questions

With 64.3 points, Milan are tipped to fall just short of the top four again. Modric and Jashari add quality, but Allegri must fix a leaky midfield and shaky defence to get them back in the UCL mix.

5. Juventus – Talent In, Pressure On

Juventus are expected to average 65.0 points, giving them a 39.7% chance at Champions League qualification. Kolo Muani and Jonathan David bring firepower, but anything short of a top-four finish would be seen as failure.

4. Roma – Gasperini’s Time to Shine

Roma average 66.8 points in simulations, bolstered by the return of Dybala and the signing of Evan Ferguson. Under Gasperini, they’ve got a 45.9% shot at the top four, and an outside chance at something more.

3. Atalanta – New Chapter, Same Ambition

Despite losing Gasperini and Retegui, Atalanta still project 68.5 points and a 12.8% title chance. Juric inherits a strong foundation, but their success may hinge on whether Lookman stays put.

2. Napoli – Reinforcements Arrive, But So Do Expectations

Last season’s champs average 68.7 points, with a 13.7% shot at defending their title. Conte’s side has reloaded with De Bruyne, Lucca, and Lang, but the added strain of Champions League play could test their depth.

1. Inter – Supercomputer’s Serie A Favorites

Inter are the predicted champions with a 35.9% chance of winning the league and a top-scoring average of 76.6 points. Chivu steps in after Inzaghi’s departure, and with Martínez and Thuram still firing, the Nerazzurri are well-positioned for a Scudetto comeback.