Supercomputer Predicts Champions League 2025/26 Winner – And It’s Not PSG
A new prediction from the Opta supercomputer has simulated the outcome of the upcoming Champions League season 10,000 times—and the result is turning heads. With Europe's elite ready to battle it out, the model forecasts Liverpool as frontrunners to claim the ultimate prize in club football.
Kairat Almaty, Pafos, Qarabag, and Bodo/Glimt – Bottom of the Pack
These four clubs were ranked as the least likely to win the Champions League this season. Kairat Almaty, Pafos, and Qarabag failed to win a single simulation, while Bodo/Glimt scraped one solitary victory out of 10,000 runs—highlighting their long-shot status.
Villarreal, Marseille, and Monaco – Historic Names, Low Hopes
Despite being known names in European football, Villarreal, Marseille, and Monaco were nowhere near the top 20. Monaco haven’t made a serious run since 2004, while the others have failed to translate domestic performances into continental consistency.
Galatasaray – Big Signings, No Reward
Galatasaray’s ambitious summer—with Leroy Sané and Victor Osimhen arriving—wasn’t enough to boost their Champions League chances. Despite heavy investment, the Turkish giants didn't crack the top 20 predicted winners.
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Ajax – Dutch Giants Miss the Cut
Ajax may be one of Europe's most storied clubs, but recent domestic and European struggles have seen them fall out of the conversation. Their absence from the top 20 marks a sharp contrast to their rich Champions League legacy.
20th Place: Atalanta – 0.6% Chance
Atalanta kick off the top 20 with a 0.6% chance to win the tournament. The furthest they’ve gone is the 2019/20 quarter-finals, and while their style remains thrilling, silverware still feels like a long shot.
19th Place: Juventus – 0.6% Chance
Juventus, two-time winners, find themselves with the same odds as Atalanta. A tough group stage featuring Real Madrid and Benfica dampens their chances of a deep run.
18th Place: Atlético Madrid – 0.6% Chance
Diego Simeone’s men remain one of Europe’s most consistent sides, but they’re still chasing their first Champions League title. A 0.6% win rate in the simulations means they’re unlikely to break that curse this season.
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17th Place: Bayer Leverkusen – 0.7% Chance
Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen return to the UCL with flair but not favor. With only 70 victories across the 10,000 simulations, they face a steep climb to contend with the elite.
16th Place: Sporting – 0.8% Chance
Portuguese side Sporting sit just above Leverkusen, winning 0.8% of the time. Though not seen as title challengers, they could pose problems in the group stages and beyond.
15th Place: Club Brugge – 0.9% Chance
Club Brugge are a surprise entrant in the top 20, winning roughly 90 simulations. Their difficult draw doesn’t help, but a historic run isn’t completely out of the question.
14th Place: Borussia Dortmund – 0.9% Chance
Dortmund reached the final in 2024 but are predicted to struggle this season. With just under 1% chance, the German side may find it tough to repeat their recent heroics.
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13th Place: Tottenham Hotspur – 1.1% Chance
After winning the Europa League last season, Spurs are hoping to build momentum. Their 1.1% chance reflects cautious optimism under new manager Thomas Frank.
12th Place: Napoli – 1.4% Chance
Napoli have been strong domestically and are now being taken more seriously in Europe. With a 1.4% chance, they could make a splash if they avoid early slip-ups.
11th Place: Benfica – 1.7% Chance
Benfica narrowly miss the top 10 but remain in the conversation. A storied club with a favorable draw, they could be a dark horse if everything clicks.
10th Place: Newcastle United – 3.0% Chance
Newcastle round out the top 10, with the supercomputer giving them a 3% shot. Strong home form at St. James’ Park could help them advance past the group stage.
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9th Place: Inter Milan – 3.0% Chance
Last year’s runners-up Inter Milan come in with identical odds to Newcastle. Despite a 5–0 loss in last season’s final, they remain dangerous contenders.
8th Place: Bayern Munich – 4.3% Chance
Bayern always demand respect in Europe, and this year is no different. With a 4.3% chance of winning, they’ll be expected to at least reach the quarter-finals.
7th Place: Real Madrid – 5.8% Chance
Surprisingly, Real Madrid aren’t among the top five favorites. Their stacked schedule, including ties with Arsenal and City, means only 580 simulations saw them lift their 16th title.
6th Place: Chelsea – 7.0% Chance
Chelsea are seen as strong outside contenders, winning in roughly 700 simulations. Under Enzo Maresca, the Blues could be a major disruptor if they find rhythm early.
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5th Place: Barcelona – 8.4% Chance
Barça fell short in last year’s semi-final but return with renewed focus. The supercomputer gives them an 8.4% shot, tying them with their former manager’s current club.
4th Place: Manchester City – 8.4% Chance
City are chasing another Champions League title under Guardiola. Despite their strength, only 8.4% of simulations saw them triumph, likely due to their difficult projected matchups.
3rd Place: Paris Saint-Germain – 12.1% Chance
Last season’s winners face a brutal path back to the top but remain third in the rankings. PSG’s strong squad and recent success earn them 1,210 wins in the model.
2nd Place: Arsenal – 16% Chance
Arsenal are the second-most likely to win the Champions League, with 1,600 predicted victories. Arteta’s project appears to be peaking at the perfect time for European success.
1st Place: Liverpool – 20.4% Chance
Liverpool top the Opta supercomputer’s prediction model, winning 2,040 of the 10,000 simulations. With a Premier League title, exciting signings, and Arne Slot at the helm, the Reds are the ones to beat in 2025/26.
