Supercomputer Predicts Title Race in La Liga 2025–26
The 2025–26 La Liga season is just getting started, but the Opta supercomputer has already run the numbers. Using thousands of simulations and updated power rankings, it has projected each team's chances of lifting the title. Spoiler alert: it’s a two-horse race, again.
Here are the key insights into who might win La Liga this season, based on current form, history, and data-driven predictions.
1. Barcelona – 47.66% Title Chance
The reigning champions are once again favorites to win it all. Under Hansi Flick, Barça opened the season strong with 2 wins and a draw, scoring 7 and conceding just 3. The supercomputer gives them nearly a 48% chance of retaining their crown, a feat no team has achieved since Barça themselves in 2019.
2. Real Madrid – 40.19% Title Chance
Xabi Alonso’s side has started perfectly, winning all three matches without conceding. With 6 goals scored and 9 points from 9, Real Madrid look dangerous. Their 40% title projection suggests a close race. Can they reclaim the throne and make it title No. 37?
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3. Athletic Club – 5.32% Title Chance
A flawless 3–0–0 record has Athletic Club dreaming. Their efficient start sees them just behind the top two, but the supercomputer is cautious, giving them a 5.32% chance of a shock title. Still, it’s their best projection in years.
4. Villarreal – 3.27% Title Chance
Villarreal's attack is flying, with 8 goals already. Despite one draw in their three games, they remain unbeaten and boast a league-best +7 goal difference. The Yellow Submarine have a 3.27% chance to dive into the title conversation.
5. Atlético Madrid – 2.57% Title Chance
With just 2 points from 3 matches, Atlético have stumbled out of the gate. But the model still gives them a sliver of hope, 2.57%, to be exact. It’s low, but not zero, and we've seen Simeone’s side pull off miracles before.
6–20. Everyone Else – Combined <1%
Outside the top five, the title race is virtually out of reach already. Betis, Espanyol, Rayo and others round out the top half of the current table, but none have more than a 0.30% chance of lifting the trophy. For most clubs, the battle lies elsewhere, top four, mid-table, or survival.
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