Supercomputer predicts 2025/26 La Liga table: Real Madrid on course for glory and Oviedo struggle
The 2025/26 La Liga season is well underway, and data experts have already made bold predictions on how the campaign could end. Using over 10,000 simulations, Opta’s supercomputer has forecasted where every club will finish come May 2026. From Real Madrid’s dominant title charge under Xabi Alonso to a tense relegation fight involving Valencia and Oviedo, the numbers paint a fascinating picture of how Spain’s top flight might unfold. Here’s a full breakdown of how each team is expected to fare – starting from the bottom.
20. Real Oviedo – 34.5 points
It has been a dream return to the top flight for Real Oviedo after more than two decades away, but it could end in heartbreak. The supercomputer predicts they will finish rock bottom with an average of 34.5 points. Despite the fairytale comeback of Santi Cazorla inspiring the fans, the squad’s lack of top-tier experience appears to be catching up with them. With a daunting 64.9% chance of relegation, Oviedo’s survival hopes look slim as they struggle to match the intensity of La Liga football.
19. Girona – 34.6 points
Just above Oviedo, Girona are also projected to face a difficult campaign. After their impressive form in recent seasons, the Catalan side are expected to fall well short of expectations this time. Their attacking style has often been thrilling to watch, but defensive fragility could prove costly. With only a marginally better goal difference keeping them above Oviedo, the supercomputer forecasts a season of frustration and regression.
18. Levante – 40.7 points
Despite winning promotion as Segunda División champions, Levante’s return to La Liga is tipped to be a struggle. The supercomputer suggests they’ll finish in 18th, narrowly missing safety. However, there is some cause for optimism – their 68.82% chance of survival shows they’re far from certain to go down. A few crucial home wins could be the difference between another year in the top flight and a swift return to the second tier.
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17. Valencia – 43.1 points
Once one of Spain’s most powerful clubs, Valencia continue to fall further from their former glory. Predicted to finish 17th, they are uncomfortably close to the drop zone once again. With a 22.34% chance of relegation, the danger is very real, and the Mestalla faithful will expect better. If they fail to rediscover their attacking spark, another disappointing season could deepen the club’s ongoing crisis.
16. Mallorca – 43.4 points
Mallorca are expected to endure another turbulent campaign in mid-table obscurity. The islanders have shown resilience in recent years but remain too inconsistent to challenge higher up. A 21.15% chance of relegation reflects the fine margins they face in the battle for survival. To stay safe, they’ll need to turn their home ground into a fortress once more and find more goals from their forwards.
15. Real Sociedad – 43.9 points
It’s a surprising projection for Real Sociedad, who were one of La Liga’s strongest sides not long ago. The model gives them just a 0.79% chance of finishing in the top four but a 19.62% risk of relegation. That drop in quality highlights how much the team has struggled since their impressive Europa League run last season. If Sergio Francisco’s men can’t find consistency, a mid-table finish could be the best they can hope for.
14. Alaves – 45.3 points
Alaves are predicted to have another solid but unspectacular campaign. Their defensive discipline and home form should keep them away from the relegation battle. With 45.3 average points, the Basque outfit are expected to maintain a safe mid-table position. While they lack the star power of bigger clubs, their work rate and organization continue to earn them valuable results.
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13. Elche – 45.9 points
Elche are forecasted to comfortably avoid relegation, with an average points tally of 45.9. The supercomputer gives them just a 12.10% chance of going down, suggesting stability after years of turbulence. Their strong recruitment and solid defensive structure seem to be paying off. Fans will hope that this marks the beginning of a new era of consistency in the top flight.
12. Celta Vigo – 46.2 points
Celta Vigo look set for another season of safety, though still far from competing for Europe. The Galician club’s attacking flair often entertains, but defensive lapses have held them back. With 46.2 average points, they’re predicted to stay comfortably mid-table once again. It’s a respectable outcome, but supporters may start demanding more ambition in the coming years.
11. Sevilla – 46.9 points
Sevilla’s struggles in domestic football appear set to continue, according to the simulations. Despite their European pedigree, the Andalusians have failed to translate that success into La Liga consistency. Predicted to finish 11th, they remain a shadow of their former selves. Unless the team rediscovers its identity, another frustrating mid-table campaign awaits.
10. Osasuna – 47.3 points
Osasuna continue to punch above their weight, and the model predicts another strong showing. The Pamplona-based side are tipped to secure a top-half finish with 47.3 points. Their disciplined structure and home advantage at El Sadar remain key assets. If they can maintain their form, Osasuna could once again prove one of the league’s toughest opponents outside the big three.
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9. Getafe – 48.1 points
Getafe narrowly escaped relegation last season, but the data suggests a much more stable campaign ahead. Predicted to finish ninth, they’ve reduced their relegation risk to just 8.01%. The Madrid-based club’s physical style and defensive grit continue to serve them well. If they can add more creativity in attack, Getafe could become a surprise contender for a European spot.
8. Rayo Vallecano – 51.9 points
Rayo Vallecano’s fearless approach has earned them plaudits across Spain, and the simulations predict another impressive finish. Ending up eighth with 51.9 points would be a huge achievement for a club of their size. Their attacking intensity and ability to unsettle bigger sides make them a joy to watch. If they can maintain momentum, European qualification might not be far away.
7. Espanyol – 53.1 points
After bouncing back from previous struggles, Espanyol are projected to finish seventh, just shy of Europe. Their improved consistency and balanced squad have been key to this revival. With over 50 points expected, they could challenge for a Conference League spot. If they continue this upward trend, Espanyol might re-establish themselves as one of La Liga’s surprise packages.
6. Athletic Club – 53.8 points
Athletic Club are once again predicted to finish in the upper half of the table. With Nico and Inaki Williams leading the line, and Oihan Sancet adding firepower, they boast an exciting attacking trio. Their home form at San Mamés remains crucial, and a sixth-place finish would reflect a well-balanced campaign. Though Champions League qualification seems out of reach, Europa League football looks achievable.
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5. Real Betis – 60.7 points
Real Betis continue to impress under Manuel Pellegrini’s guidance, and the supercomputer expects another strong season. Finishing fifth with 60.7 points would keep them firmly in the European mix. The arrival of Antony after his successful loan spell could add a new dimension to their attack. If Betis maintain their creative style, they could even threaten the top four.
4. Villarreal – 66.9 points
Villarreal are forecasted to claim the final Champions League spot, with a 62.7% chance of finishing in the top four. Despite losing some key players, they remain one of the most tactically solid sides in Spain. Their attacking balance and disciplined defense have kept them among the elite. If consistency holds, the Yellow Submarine will be back competing with Europe’s best next season.
3. Atletico Madrid – 70.2 points
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid may be outsiders in the title race but remain a formidable force. Predicted to finish third, they hold a 3.4% chance of winning La Liga. Their mix of defensive discipline and emerging attacking talent should secure another Champions League campaign. While not quite at the level of Real or Barcelona, they remain capable of big results in decisive moments.
2. Barcelona – 80.4 points
Barcelona, last season’s champions, are expected to fall just short this time. With an average of 80.4 points, they remain strong but not quite enough to match Real Madrid’s resurgence. Xavi’s side have shown flashes of brilliance but lack the consistency to retain the title. Their young core will continue to excite fans, but a second-place finish may feel underwhelming given their ambitions.
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1. Real Madrid – 86.8 points
At the top of the table, Real Madrid are predicted to reclaim the La Liga crown. With a dominant 68.91% chance of lifting the trophy, Xabi Alonso’s men look unstoppable. A blend of youth and experience, led by Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Jr., has brought new energy to the Bernabéu. If the simulations prove accurate, Los Blancos are set to end Barcelona’s reign and restore their place as Spain’s undisputed champions.
