Premier League predictions: Who’s going down, and who’s going all the way?
A new data model has predicted the final Premier League standings — and the results are raising eyebrows. From Wolves’ alarming relegation odds to Arsenal’s growing title charge, here’s a quick breakdown from bottom to top.
Wolves face a brutal drop
Wolves sit dead last in the prediction table, with a staggering 82.74% chance of relegation. Their overall expected points (xpts) of 28.66 makes them clear favourites to go down without even a whiff of European contention.
West Ham in serious trouble
The Hammers’ form is slipping fast, and the numbers paint a bleak picture. With 65.59% relegation odds and only 0.01% chance of European competition, West Ham are staring into the abyss.
Nottingham Forest can’t find safety
Nottingham Forest haven’t managed to pull themselves out of the danger zone, and with 42.26% likelihood of relegation, they’re running out of time. Their predicted points tally is just 37.24, placing them firmly in the bottom three.
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Burnley barely hanging on
Burnley sit just above Forest, but not by much. With 36.11% relegation odds and only a 0.09% chance of making Europe, they’re facing a long, uphill battle to survive.
Leeds facing the drop again
Despite flashes of fight, Leeds are still predicted to go down, with 34.16% relegation odds. Their xpts of 38.96 shows little hope for a dramatic late-season surge.
Fulham not out of the woods
Fulham fans shouldn’t get too comfortable. Though they’re outside the drop zone, a 15.05% chance of relegation keeps them looking nervously over their shoulder.
Sunderland’s top-flight return under pressure
Sunderland’s Premier League comeback could be short-lived. With only 0.86% chance of Europe and 9.17% odds of going back down, they’re stuck in mid-table limbo for now.
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Everton inching away from danger
Everton might just escape the drop, but it’s still close. Their 9.15% relegation risk isn’t negligible, and European dreams are all but over at 1.14%.
Brentford and Brighton slipping from Europe
Brentford and Brighton are hanging in mid-table with outside shots at Europe. Brentford has a 6.26% UEL probability, while Brighton sits at 10.01%, but both clubs look likely to fall short.
United struggling to stay in the mix
Manchester United’s form has dipped, and so have their continental chances. With 14.5% odds for Europa League and 7.45% for Conference League, they risk missing out entirely.
Spurs and Palace neck-and-neck
Tottenham and Crystal Palace are battling for similar ground, with both having around 19% chance for Europa League. Spurs slightly edge Palace in xpts, but it's tight at this stage.
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Newcastle still in European hunt
Newcastle are in the mix with a 21.69% chance of Europa League and 9.22% for the Conference League. They’ll need to kick on if they want to make it count.
Bournemouth rising above expectations
Bournemouth are one of the surprise packages, sitting 6th in predicted points. With a 23.67% chance of Europa League football, they’re punching well above their weight.
Aston Villa dreaming big
Unai Emery’s Villa continue their impressive run with 60.09 xpts and nearly 25% chance of Europa League qualification. Their European push looks strong and sustained.
Chelsea clawing their way back
Chelsea’s recovery under Pochettino shows promise. With a 27.16% chance of Europa League, they’re edging back into contention after a difficult spell.
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Liverpool in the title race
Liverpool still have a shot at glory, with 9.69% chance of winning the league and 64.08% odds of a Champions League spot. Klopp’s side remains in the thick of it.
Man City still a threat
City trail Arsenal but remain dangerous, with over 70% chance of finishing in the Champions League places and 13.27% chance of winning the title. You can never count Guardiola’s side out.
Arsenal are title favourites
Arsenal sit top of the table with 80.17 expected points and a whopping 67.76% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy. They’re firmly in control — but with City chasing, nothing is guaranteed.
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