Can Verstappen still steal the title? A closer look at his Sao Paulo challenge

November 7, 2025 Oliver Obel

What’s fascinating is how Verstappen’s late-season form has quietly shifted the narrative. Over the past five rounds, he’s claimed three victories and outperformed the McLarens in several key areas — race management, tyre wear, and consistency under pressure. The question now is whether that momentum can survive the final stretch, starting this weekend in Sao Paulo.

Momentum vs mathematics

On paper, 36 points is a big ask. Even if Verstappen were to win the remaining races, Norris and Oscar Piastri could still control their own destiny by finishing consistently on the podium. That means Verstappen isn’t just racing against his rivals — he’s fighting the arithmetic of the championship itself.

Yet history shows he thrives in exactly this kind of situation. When the margins tighten, Verstappen’s ability to extract maximum performance from a car — even when it’s not the outright fastest — becomes a defining weapon. Red Bull’s recent upgrades have also closed the gap to McLaren on straight-line speed, which could prove crucial at a high-energy circuit like Interlagos.

Why Sao Paulo matters

Interlagos has always suited Verstappen’s driving style. It’s a rhythm track — one that rewards precision, patience, and adaptability when conditions change. His win here last year, from 17th on the grid in wet-dry conditions, was a masterclass in risk control and instinct.

This weekend’s weather forecast suggests another mix of sun and showers, and that unpredictability could play in his favor. However, McLaren’s recent progress in wet conditions, particularly managing intermediate tyre temperatures, means Red Bull can’t rely on chaos alone to bridge the gap.

Psychology and pressure

One of the most underrated aspects of Verstappen’s resurgence has been his composure. Earlier in the season, frustration was visible — radio messages hinted at tension, and his body language in the paddock reflected the strain of being on the back foot. But over the last month, that intensity has turned into focus.

He’s not chasing desperately; he’s executing clinically. Even his comments this week in Sao Paulo sounded relaxed, bordering on detached — not the tone of a man panicking about points, but of someone who knows exactly what’s required and is willing to take it one race at a time.

That mindset might be his biggest asset now. When titles are won and lost by inches, control often beats aggression.

Can he do it?

Realistically, Verstappen’s path to a fifth championship depends on two things: performance in Brazil and luck elsewhere. If he can win the Sprint and the main Grand Prix — and if either McLaren driver falters — the equation tightens dramatically heading into the final three races.

But if Norris and Piastri continue to split podiums, the math becomes brutal. Even Verstappen’s current run of form might not be enough to overcome that level of consistency.

Still, this is Max Verstappen we’re talking about — a driver who has built his reputation on defying the odds. The Sao Paulo weekend might not decide the title outright, but it could define whether this season ends in a final-lap fight or a graceful concession.

Verdict

The odds are against him, but momentum is on his side. Verstappen has been in control, calm, and quietly relentless — qualities that tend to matter most when championships reach their breaking point.

If Red Bull delivers a competitive package in Brazil, the title race might just get the plot twist it’s been missing.

Sources: Formula1.com, BBC Sport, Reuters, Sky Sports F1