Manchester City’s chase looks uncomfortably familiar for Arsenal

December 20, 2025 Oliver Obel

Manchester City are used to spending the early months of a season looking upward rather than down. As winter approaches, that pattern is beginning to reassert itself once again.

Pep Guardiola cautioned in November that titles are not secured before Christmas, and the weeks since have reinforced that view. Arsenal remain top of the Premier League, but their advantage has thinned, while City’s performances are starting to resemble the measured, unsparing form that has defined their dominance under Guardiola.

The table still shows separation. The feeling around the race does not.

City have taken 15 points from six league matches since Guardiola’s comments, according to Premier League data. Over the same stretch, Arsenal have dropped seven, allowing the champions to cut what was once a six-point deficit to two.

Aston Villa’s flawless run has briefly complicated the picture, but recent Premier League history and the demands of squad rotation over a long winter suggest the title race is more likely to return to familiar ground. Sustained challenges in the final months usually come from teams built to absorb pressure and recover quickly.

That has long been City’s advantage.

Different tests, clearer signals

The weekend’s fixtures offered a useful snapshot. City travelled to Crystal Palace, who began the round in fourth place and had been beaten just once at Selhurst Park all season. For long spells, the home side made it uncomfortable, twice rattling the woodwork and forcing City to reset their shape.

Once City settled, the control was unmistakable. The 3-0 scoreline reflected how the final half-hour unfolded, not how the afternoon began.

Arsenal’s task appeared simpler. Wolves arrived at the Emirates bottom of the table by most performance metrics, yet the match never truly relaxed. Arsenal required two own goals the second deep into stoppage time to get over the line.

Both sides won. Only one looked in command by the end.

Experience matters in this phase

Guardiola’s November warning was shaped by experience. City’s seasons have often been defined less by fast starts than by sustained pressure after the halfway mark. In five of the past seven campaigns, they have collected more points in the second half than in the first, easing only when titles were already secure.

That pattern has been especially familiar to Arsenal. In both 2022–23 and 2023–24, City reeled them in with extended winning runs after Christmas, reshaping races that once looked settled.

Players speak openly about it. Bernardo Silva said recently that City “have always been much better in the second part of the season,” adding that some early performances this year were “not acceptable at our level.”

Still climbing

Guardiola shares that assessment. After the Palace win, he insisted City remain short of their best but are edging closer. “We are not in an ideal position,” he said, “but we are close to the top.”

There are reasons for confidence. City are already ahead of their points totals from several title-winning seasons at the same stage, and Rodri’s return from injury is approaching. His presence has often coincided with City’s most controlled and dominant periods.

For Arsenal, the challenge is a familiar one: sustaining an early lead while a proven chaser gathers speed. The destination of this season remains uncertain, but recent weeks have underlined a lesson City have taught the league repeatedly advantages built before winter are fragile.

Sources: Premier League data; post-match interviews with Pep Guardiola and Bernardo Silva.