Arsenal’s advantage grows as the title race loses momentum

January 19, 2026 Oliver Obel

With just over a third of the season remaining, the Premier League title race is beginning to take on a familiar shape: Arsenal out in front, and their closest rivals struggling to apply pressure.

The goalless draw at Nottingham Forest on Saturday initially felt like a missed opportunity. Yet as results unfolded across the weekend, its significance faded. According to BBC Sport’s roundup, Arsenal ended the round seven points clear a gap widened not by brilliance, but by collective failure elsewhere.

That context matters.

A rare window opens

Arsenal have spent recent seasons chasing standards set by Manchester City and, before that, Liverpool. This time, neither benchmark is being met. City’s defeat at Manchester United extended a run of four league matches without a win, while Liverpool’s draw with Burnley at Anfield left them 14 points adrift and drew audible frustration from supporters.

Title races are not won in February, but they can be lost there. None of Arsenal’s challengers are showing the consistency usually required to overhaul a lead of this size.

Balance, not brilliance

Questions persist about Arsenal’s attack after consecutive scoreless draws. Those concerns are valid. However, they are counterbalanced by the league’s most effective defence, built on control rather than risk.

That distinction separates Arsenal from previous near-misses. This side does not rely on momentum or high-scoring streaks. Instead, it limits damage on quieter days a trait often shared by champions.

Late-season collapses are part of Premier League folklore, but they typically coincide with instability. At present, Arsenal show little of it.

Villa’s setback highlights the gap

Aston Villa briefly appeared capable of inserting themselves into the title discussion, particularly given their formidable home form. Everton’s deserved win at Villa Park ended an 11-match winning run there and underlined the margins involved.

Thierno Barry’s composed finish came after sustained pressure, exploiting Emi Martinez’s attempt to turn a routine save into something more elaborate. It was a reminder that small errors are punished at the highest level.

Unai Emery has consistently resisted talk of a title charge, and he reiterated that stance afterward. “There are other teams with more potential than us,” he said, while acknowledging the disappointment of missing the chance to move into second place.

Villa remain well positioned for Champions League qualification, but their limitations are clear. They have failed to score in seven league matches this season matching their total from the entire 2024–25 campaign and their reported interest in Tammy Abraham reflects a recognised need for greater attacking depth.

Pressure shifts upward

What makes Arsenal’s position notable is not dominance, but durability. Rivals are dropping points in different ways: City through inconsistency, Liverpool through regression, Villa through squad limits.

Arsenal, by contrast, are standing still while the field moves backward.

They have finished second in each of the past three seasons, often fading when expectations rose. This time, the circumstances are different. Control of the title race rests largely with them, not because they are flawless, but because no one else is forcing the issue.

The season still has distance to run. But for the first time in years, Arsenal are not chasing inevitability they are managing advantage.

Sources: BBC Sport