Experts break down Formula One’s 2026 competitive order after early testing

February 2, 2026 Oliver Obel

Mercedes may be resisting the label, but early signs from Formula One’s first 2026 shakedown have been enough to prompt quiet reassessment up and down the pit lane.

At a subdued but closely watched test in Barcelona, the team completed a smooth, problem-free programme that has drawn attention as the sport prepares for a major regulatory reset. Teams stress that early testing can mislead. Still, reliability and consistency tend to matter when new rules arrive.

A cautious test under new rules

All 11 teams ran their first full versions of the 2026 cars at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, beginning the transition to regulations that reshape aerodynamics and place greater emphasis on hybrid power units. According to Sky Sports, FIA officials paid particular attention to Mercedes after a week marked by strong mileage and minimal disruption.

With the focus firmly on systems checks rather than outright speed, most teams left Spain simply relieved to have gathered clean data. The 24-race season will open in Melbourne from March 6–8 and conclude in Abu Dhabi on December 4–6.

Lap times hint, but don’t decide

Although the stopwatch was treated cautiously, Lewis Hamilton finished the week fastest with a 1:16.3. George Russell followed on a 1:16.445, while reigning world champion Lando Norris set the third-best time at 1:16.554.

Those numbers came with familiar caveats around fuel loads, run plans and track conditions. Even so, Mercedes’ ability to run consistently without visible issues stood out in a field still learning its new machinery.

That may prove misleading but it was enough to get attention.

Analysts see Mercedes as early reference

Sky Sports analysts Ted Kravitz and Craig Slater said the Barcelona running broadly aligned with expectations formed before cars even hit the track. Mercedes had been widely viewed as a potential early benchmark, and the test did little to undermine that view.

In their assessment, Red Bull and McLaren appear closely matched behind Mercedes based on early data shared within the paddock, though both analysts stressed how quickly that picture could change. Ferrari, with Charles Leclerc alongside Hamilton, were viewed as the next strongest package, albeit one that looks demanding to extract performance from.

Behind that leading group, Alpine were tentatively placed next, followed by Racing Bulls and Aston Martin. Racing Bulls made a solid early impression despite a visibly different design philosophy, while Aston Martin remain the biggest unknown.

“If the car runs as good as it looks, then maybe Aston could be ahead of Alpine, Racing Bulls and even Ferrari,” Slater said. “We don’t really know.”

Haas, Audi, Cadillac and Williams rounded out the early projections.

https://twitter.com/SkySportsF1/status/2017888797128569022

Mercedes play down expectations

Inside Mercedes, there is little appetite for being cast as favourites. Slater said senior figures at the team are pushing back on suggestions they have a clear edge, viewing themselves instead in the same bracket as Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren.

That caution is not fully shared by rivals. Slater reported that McLaren believe Mercedes have arrived with a genuinely strong car, independent of conditions that may have flattered them in previous seasons. Improved understanding of how to harvest and deploy electrical energy is seen as part of the explanation, but not the decisive factor.

For now, Barcelona has offered clues rather than conclusions. What is clear is that as Formula One edges toward its 2026 reset, Mercedes have given the rest of the grid something to think about.

Sources: Sky Sports