Opta Supercomputer predicts 2025-26 Champions League winner

March 20, 2026 Oliver Obel

With the quarter-final lineup now confirmed, Opta’s latest supercomputer simulations point to Arsenal as the leading contender to win the 2025/26 Champions League.

The projections, run after the completion of the Round of 16, reflect a tournament that has already delivered dominant performances and dramatic momentum swings.

Arsenal emerge as frontrunners

Mikel Arteta’s side are given a 29.95% chance of lifting the trophy, the highest of any remaining team. Arsenal progressed with a 3-1 aggregate win over Bayer Leverkusen and, based on Opta’s model, appear to have the strongest path to a first European Cup in the club’s history.

Bayern Munich are ranked second at 18.02% after a commanding 10-2 aggregate victory against Atalanta. Barcelona follow on 14.74% after their emphatic win over Newcastle United.

Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are assigned a 12.15% chance of retaining the title, despite producing arguably the most dominant display of the round.

PSG and Madrid underline credentials

PSG delivered the most emphatic result, defeating Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate. The tie was still level late in the first leg before the French side pulled away with three late goals in Paris, then added another three in London to seal the rout.

Real Madrid also strengthened their case, eliminating Manchester City 5-1 on aggregate in a composed two-leg performance that underlined their experience in the competition.

Liverpool, the only other remaining Premier League side, are given a 7.04% chance of going all the way.

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Outsiders still in the mix

Atletico Madrid are rated at 4.65% after edging past Tottenham Hotspur 7-5 on aggregate across two high-scoring matches.

Sporting CP, considered the least likely winners at 3.27%, produced one of the standout comebacks of the round. After a 3-0 first-leg defeat to Bodo/Glimt, they responded with a 5-0 home victory to progress.

Quarter-final ties confirmed

The draw for the last eight sets up several high-profile clashes:

Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
Arsenal vs Sporting CP

With several European heavyweights still involved and Arsenal leading the statistical projections, the competition remains finely balanced heading into the deciding stages.

Sources: Opta supercomputer simulations, 2025/26 UEFA Champions League match results