Supercomputer predicts 2025-26 Champions League winner chances after latest results

April 10, 2026 Oliver Obel

The battle for this season’s Champions League title has taken a decisive turn after a dramatic round of quarter-final first legs, with fresh projections now placing Arsenal firmly ahead of Europe’s elite.

According to updated simulations from Opta, the English side have moved into pole position but the path to the final remains far from settled.

A round that changed the picture

The biggest shock came in Barcelona, where Atletico Madrid claimed a 2-0 victory in the first European fixture at the newly renovated Camp Nou. Diego Simeone’s side combined defensive discipline with clinical finishing, leaving Barcelona with significant ground to recover in the return leg.

Elsewhere, Paris Saint-Germain produced one of the most dominant displays of the round in a 2-0 win over Liverpool. The scoreline arguably flattered the visitors, with PSG controlling possession and creating the clearer chances throughout the night.

Bayern Munich also strengthened their credentials by beating Real Madrid 2-1, while Arsenal edged past Sporting CP 1-0 in Lisbon a result that preserved their status as the only unbeaten team left in the competition.

What the numbers now suggest

Opta’s supercomputer, which simulates the tournament thousands of times, reflects how those results have shifted the landscape.

Sporting CP remain the least likely winners despite a slight uptick, with their chances sitting at 1.50%. Liverpool are not far ahead at 1.83%, facing a difficult task to overturn their deficit against a confident PSG side.

Real Madrid, serial winners of the competition, are given just a 2.67% chance, while Barcelona’s home defeat has dropped them to 5.21%.

Rather than just current form, these projections also factor in the difficulty of each club’s potential route through the remaining rounds — a key reason several traditional heavyweights now find themselves on the back foot.

A tightening group of contenders

Atletico Madrid’s statement win has pushed them into genuine contention, with their chances rising to 6.77%. While they have never lifted the trophy, performances like this suggest they are capable of going deep into the tournament.

PSG, meanwhile, appear increasingly well-positioned. With a 16.22% probability, they combine attacking depth with the added advantage of a domestic schedule that allows for greater rest between European fixtures.

Bayern Munich sit just behind the leaders at 29.11%. Their balance across the pitch — from attacking firepower to defensive control — has made them one of the most consistent sides in this year’s competition, and their win over Real Madrid only reinforced that impression.

Arsenal set the pace

At the top of the projections are Arsenal, given a 36.69% chance of winning what would be their first Champions League title.

Mikel Arteta’s side have built their campaign on consistency and control, finishing the league phase with a perfect record before grinding out a disciplined away win in Portugal.

There is still little margin for error, and second-leg ties can quickly swing momentum. But as it stands, the data suggests Arsenal have put themselves in the strongest position yet to finally break their European drought.

Sources: Opta