Is the 40-point mark still the magic number for survival?

April 29, 2026 Oliver Obel

The Premier League relegation battle is intensifying, with recent wins for Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest shaking up the bottom of the table. This season, the long-held belief that "40 points are needed to survive in the Premier League" is facing its sternest challenge in years, potentially proving to be a "factually inaccurate truism," as described by Opta Analyst. Historically, the "magic 40-point mark" has rarely been a true indicator of safety. According to Opta Analyst data, in the 21 completed 38-game Premier League seasons, only once did the team in the final relegation spot achieve as many as 39 points (Birmingham in 2010-11). The average points tally for the 18th-placed team over the last 21 seasons stands at just 33.5, rising slightly to 34.5 across all 38-game Premier League campaigns. Furthermore, 38 points has been sufficient for survival in each of the last 14 seasons, with Newcastle's 37 points in 2015-16 being the highest tally for an 18th-placed side in that period. Only in the early 38-game Premier League era (1995-2003) were 40 points not enough on three occasions, most notably when West Ham were relegated with 42 points in 2002-03.

Tottenham's precarious position

This season, however, feels different. Tottenham currently occupy the final relegation spot (18th) with 34 points, above already-relegated Burnley and Wolves. Their recent 1-0 victory at Wolves marked their first Premier League win of 2026 and their first clean sheet since New Year’s Day, extending their unbeaten run to two league games for the first time since February 1. Despite this uptick in form, the Opta supercomputer makes Spurs the favourites for the drop, projecting a 59.0% chance of relegation and an average finish of 38.7 points from 10,000 simulations. With a maximum of 12 points still available, Tottenham's remaining fixtures include home games against Leeds and Everton, and away trips to Aston Villa and Chelsea. The match against Villa is sandwiched between their Europa League semi-final legs against Forest, while the Stamford Bridge encounter will be rearranged around Chelsea’s FA Cup final, with the Blues "all but out of the hunt for a top-five finish."

A historic battle at the bottom

What makes this season unique is the strong recent form of the teams fighting for survival. Leeds have already reached 40 points and are unbeaten in five games. Nottingham Forest, on 39 points, have three wins from their last four and are unbeaten in six. West Ham, 17th with 36 points, have won six and lost three of their last 13 games. The Opta supercomputer expects West Ham to reach 40.2 projected points, though Opta Power Rankings identify them as having the toughest remaining fixtures. Last season, West Ham were also on 36 points at this stage, but were a comfortable 15 points clear of the relegation zone. In a testament to the intensity of the battle, Spurs, West Ham, Forest, and Leeds are all in the top 10 of the Premier League's form guide over their last three games, with West Ham, Forest, and Leeds each taking seven points. This collective resurgence means there's a real possibility that all four relegation-threatened sides could reach 40 points, ensuring that for one of them, the traditional safety mark will not be enough. There's even a slim chance that Newcastle, stuck on 42 points since March 14, could be dragged into the scrap. The exact points tally needed for survival will ultimately come down to the performances of Tottenham and West Ham. For the first time since the early 2000s, 40 points may genuinely not be enough, setting the stage for one of the most compelling relegation conclusions in recent Premier League memory. Sources: theanalyst.com