AI Predicts the Top 5 Candidates for the 2026 NBA MVP
The 2025 NBA MVP race was unforgettable, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander edging out Nikola Jokić in a thrilling showdown that carried over into the playoffs. But with a new season upon us, the stakes are reset, and the conversation begins again.
Winning back-to-back MVPs is never easy, and Jokić knows better than anyone how tough the competition will be. This year, artificial intelligence has weighed in, producing a fascinating shortlist of the five players most likely to lift the Michael Jordan Trophy in 2026.
From a generational rookie phenom to seasoned superstars chasing more history, here’s who the AI says to watch.
5. Victor Wembanyama – San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama was one of the most hyped prospects in basketball history, and the Spurs struck gold when they landed him with the No. 1 pick in 2023. Now, at 21, the French sensation is ready to take a leap from future star to serious MVP contender.
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Last season showed just how high his ceiling is, but health remains the elephant in the room. Wemby missed the final 36 games due to a blood clot, raising concerns about durability. Yet when on the floor, his two-way dominance is undeniable—he averaged 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, and nearly four steals across 46 appearances.
With new additions like De’Aaron Fox and rookie Dylan Harper, San Antonio has the supporting cast to make noise in the West. If Wembanyama stays healthy and the Spurs rise into playoff contention, his name will be in the MVP conversation. At minimum, he’s a strong favorite to claim Defensive Player of the Year.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks
It feels almost disrespectful to put Giannis Antetokounmpo outside the top three, but the Bucks’ uncertain future keeps him at No. 4. Still, “The Greek Freak” continues to redefine consistency at the highest level.
In 2024–25, he averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 60% shooting—an outrageous stat line even by his own lofty standards. Giannis has already claimed two MVP awards, but the question is whether Milwaukee can keep pace in a rapidly improving Eastern Conference.
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Trade rumors have swirled, yet Giannis has shown no public desire to leave. If he replicates last season’s numbers and keeps the Bucks relevant, he’ll be right back in the MVP discussion. His all-around dominance ensures he remains one of the safest picks year in, year out.
3. Luka Dončić – Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Dončić in purple and gold still feels surreal. The Slovenian superstar was traded from Dallas to the Lakers last year, creating one of the most high-profile partnerships in sports history alongside LeBron James.
Regular-season brilliance has never been in doubt for Dončić. He nearly captured MVP in 2024 with a jaw-dropping 33.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game. But his struggles in last season’s playoffs, particularly on the defensive end, highlighted the next step he must take.
Reports of improved conditioning and weight loss have fans optimistic that Luka will bounce back stronger. If he delivers another statistical masterclass while guiding the Lakers to a top seed, the MVP trophy could finally be his. For Los Angeles, however, balance may matter more than gaudy numbers.
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2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no longer just a star—he’s the face of Oklahoma City’s basketball renaissance. After winning MVP in 2025 and leading the Thunder to their first-ever NBA championship, SGA enters the new season with even higher expectations.
What sets him apart isn’t just his scoring—it’s his efficiency. Averaging 32.7 points per game on just 21 shots, Shai has mastered the art of maximizing possessions. His ability to manipulate defenses and get to the line has drawn some criticism, but it’s hard to argue with the results.
At 27, he’s in his prime, and the Thunder’s young core continues to mature around him. If OKC stays near the top of the West, Shai has a real shot at going back-to-back. According to AI models, he’s the clear No. 2 favorite, with odds just behind the reigning king of Denver.
1. Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokić didn’t win MVP last season, but he remains the best player in the world by most accounts. The Serbian genius averaged a triple-double in 2024–25—29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists—numbers that would be career peaks for nearly anyone else.
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Already a three-time MVP, Jokić is chasing a fourth, which would put him in rarefied air alongside Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Wilt Chamberlain. Few players in history have blended scoring, playmaking, and efficiency quite like him.
Denver’s offseason additions should ease his burden, but make no mistake: the Nuggets go as Jokić goes. His consistency, vision, and ability to control every facet of the game make him the safest bet in this race.
AI gives him the highest probability to win, and until proven otherwise, the Joker remains the man to beat.
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