Analysis: Who are this years favourites to win the Champions League?
As things stand, two teams look a class above the rest in the Champions League: Bayern Munich and Arsenal. Both have built strong cases in very different ways, and on current form, it’s hard to argue against them being the frontrunners for the trophy.
Bayern have been exceptional across all competitions, carrying their domestic dominance into Europe with a near-perfect start. Their win over PSG highlighted just how complete they are: sharp, fluid attacking play early on and impressive defensive control once the match became unpredictable.
Even without the suspended Luis Díaz, they look dangerous from every angle, with Harry Kane, Serge Gnabry, Michael Olise and Díaz already contributing 45 goals and 19 assists between them. Add Vincent Kompany’s willingness to rotate before big games, and Bayern look fresher and more balanced than almost any other team in the competition.
Arsenal, meanwhile, continue to climb towards elite status under Mikel Arteta. Their recent win over Slavia Prague extended their undefeated run to ten matches, and a run of eight consecutive clean sheets has tied a club record that stood for more than a century.
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Defensively, they seem stronger than at any point in Arteta’s tenure, and the squad finally has the depth to maintain that standard throughout a long season. The only hesitation is that they have yet to beat either Liverpool or Manchester City this season but their upcoming showdown with Bayern on November 26 will offer the clearest indication yet of whether Arsenal truly belong at the very top of Europe.
PSG: Contenders or still too uncertain?
PSG remain a major threat, although their current injury situation makes them difficult to judge. According to Transfermarkt, Desire Doué, Achraf Hakimi and Ousmane Dembélé is out with an injury.
The Standard reports that Dembélé feels good ahead of PSG’s upcoming Champions League match against Tottenham, but there is still no guarantee the 28-year-old winger will actually play.
At full strength, PSG can compete with anyone something we saw glimpses of even in their recent loss to Bayern. But their chances in the knockout rounds depend heavily on having Dembélé, Doué and Hakimi healthy again.
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Real Madrid and Manchester City: Too reliant on their stars
Real Madrid have looked unconvincing at times, and Kylian Mbappé cannot carry the team on his own. A flat performance against Liverpool exposed how reliant they can be on moments of individual brilliance. With an xG of just 0.45 in that match, even with Mbappé, Vinícius Jr and Jude Bellingham on the pitch, their attack still feels disjointed under their new coaching setup.
Their inconsistency, combined with a lack of attacking sharpness in key moments, makes them feel a step behind the very top contenders right now. But as we know Real Madrid tend to grow into the competition, but right now they’re far from flawless.
Manchester City face a similar issue. Even though Erling Haaland keeps scoring, City have shown signs of being overly dependent on him. When Phil Foden steps up, the team looks far more balanced but without more collective consistency, they don’t look as dominant as in previous seasons. Manchester City with and without Rodri are essentially two different teams, and they still haven’t had him back from injury. His return could be the key to their season.
Right now, both teams seem a tier below Bayern and Arsenal.
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Barcelona’s defensive issues persist
Barcelona also don’t inspire full confidence. Defensively, they have been exposed repeatedly, and Lamine Yamal’s intermittent injury problems only add to the uncertainty.
According to ESPN, Barcelona rank 30th out of 36 teams in xG allowed per shot, 22nd in xG conceded from counterattacks, and 18th in goals allowed in the Champions League clear signs of a team struggling without the ball.
The 3–3 draw with Club Brugge summed up their issues. Without a reliable replacement for Íñigo Martínez, who left for Al-Nassr this summer, the defensive structure just hasn’t recovered.
Dark horse: Inter Milan
In my view, Inter Milan remain one of the most intriguing outsiders this year. Sitting on 12 points from 12, they are right behind Arsenal and PSG in the standings. Their remaining fixtures Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, Dortmund and Arsenal are extremely difficult, yet Inter have a habit of navigating tough stretches quietly and effectively.
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They reached the Champions League finals in 2023 and 2025, often without attracting a lot of attention. If history is any guide, they should not be underestimated.
Sources: Goal, SofaScore, Bavarian Football Works, Transfermarkt, The Standard, ESPN
