Ten days out from the London Palladium, nobody can agree on who wins. Harry Kane sits at 1/2 with British bookmakers according to the latest update from OLBG, with Lamine Yamal at 2/1. A fortnight earlier the two were the other way round, Yamal at 1/2 and Kane at 6/4.

Nothing new has happened on the pitch to drive that. Voting among journalists from the top 100 FIFA nations closed on 28 September, four weeks before the envelope is opened. What the market is reacting to is rumour, not fresh evidence.

Kane’s number is 61

Kane finished the 2025-26 season with 61 goals for Bayern Munich in 51 appearances, the Bundesliga title and the DFB-Pokal, and added six goals at the World Cup before England went out in the semi-finals. He also took the Gerd Müller Trophy as the game’s top scorer across club and country.

OLBG notes that the Englishman’s goal tally is the single number driving the market, with Yamal’s 2/1 still tempting backers who think the vote will swing to the teenager.

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Yamal is 19

Yamal’s season reads differently: 24 goals and 18 assists across all competitions and a second straight La Liga title with Barcelona. He is also on the Kopa Trophy shortlist for the best under-21 player. If he takes the main prize at 19 he would become the youngest Ballon d’Or holder, overtaking Brazil’s Ronaldo Nazário, who was 21 when he won it in 1997.

The leak Romano shot down

Earlier this week a different story briefly took the lead in the news cycle. Reports in Spanish and Latin American media said Messi had been booked to present the trophy at the Palladium, a detail that was being read in Spain as a hint that Yamal was about to be named winner.

Fabrizio Romano killed the claim the same day.

“Lionel Messi will not present any award to the winners of the Ballon d’Or because he has not received an invitation to do so,” Romano wrote on 13 October.

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Messi is nominated and remains eligible for a ninth award, but Romano added that his attendance at the ceremony has not been confirmed either.

First time out of Paris

Monday’s event is the 70th edition of the prize and the first ever staged outside Paris, moved to London in honour of inaugural 1956 winner Sir Stanley Matthews. The men’s and women’s ceremonies begin at 8pm local time at the London Palladium and will stream free worldwide on DAZN.

The men’s shortlist also includes reigning holder Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Rodri and Erling Haaland. The envelope opens on Monday 26 October.

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