Crystal Palace’s rise under Glasner: Ruthless decisions will shape what comes next
When Glasner arrived in February 2024, few expected an immediate transformation. Yet within months, the Austrian led Palace to their first-ever major trophy — the FA Cup — ending decades of near misses and mid-table monotony. His impact has gone beyond results; Palace now play with a bold, front-foot identity that’s become a model for clubs outside the “big six.”
For lifelong supporters, the stability of mid-table life once felt like luxury. Now, it feels like a pause. The club is secure, ambitious, and capable of trading blows with anyone in England. What they crave next is progression — not just surviving among the elite, but belonging there.
Numbers that tell a story
According to Opta data, Palace have generated a non-penalty expected goals (npxG) total of 16.1 this season — higher than any other Premier League side, including Manchester City. Yet they’ve scored more than six goals fewer than expected, suggesting that their creativity isn’t being matched by finishing precision.
To see just how varied Crystal Palace’s finishing has been this season, here’s how each key player ranks for Goals vs Expected Goals (xG) — showing how many goals they’ve scored compared to what their chances suggest they should have:
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- Jean-Philippe Mateta: –2.89
- Yéremy Pino: –1.14
- Daichi Kamada: –0.39
- Chris Richards: –0.37
- Maxence Lacroix: –0.35
- Ismaila Sarr: –0.25
- Adam Wharton: –0.23
- Will Hughes: –0.16
- Daniel Muñoz: +0.13
- Marc Guehi: +0.14
- Tyrick Mitchell: +0.59
The numbers tell their own story. Most of Palace’s attacking players are underperforming their expected goals, with Jean-Philippe Mateta standing out as the biggest outlier — nearly three goals below expectation. Only Tyrick Mitchell, Marc Guehi, and Daniel Muñoz have outperformed their finishing metrics, all defenders rather than forwards.
That imbalance highlights a clear issue: Palace’s back line is converting at a higher rate than its forwards — a pattern no team can sustain if they want to challenge for Europe.
A data-driven dilemma
Mateta’s story embodies that tension. The French striker has scored five league goals this season, but three came in one frenetic 3–3 draw against Bournemouth. Across the rest of the campaign, his conversion rate has hovered around one goal in every ten chances — the lowest among Palace players to score this season, despite being their most regularly supplied forward.
Glasner’s system encourages chance creation on a massive scale — overwhelm the opponent, and the goals will come. The logic is sound. Yet in the Premier League, wastefulness has consequences. Against stronger opponents, the margin between dominance and defeat can be as narrow as a mistimed finish.
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As FourFourTwo notes, Palace’s recruitment team may soon face a defining test: whether to keep faith in Mateta or bring in serious competition. It’s the kind of decision that separates an entertaining mid-table club from a European contender.
Lessons from the past
Palace have shown before that they can make difficult, even unpopular, decisions. Letting Wilfried Zaha leave was painful but pragmatic. Selling Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze reflected smart business — the product of a recruitment model that has worked remarkably well for a club of Palace’s size.
Retaining captain Marc Guehi, however, may have been a rare emotional call — a decision driven more by loyalty than logic. The next phase of Palace’s evolution will demand something different: strategic detachment. Upgrading proactively, rather than merely replacing departed stars, could determine whether Glasner’s side continues to rise or plateaus at “impressive but incomplete.”
The next test
As Palace prepare to face Brentford — both teams level on points in mid-table — the sense of potential around Selhurst Park is palpable. The football is thrilling, the atmosphere vibrant, and the trajectory unmistakably upward.
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But if Glasner’s team truly want to break the Premier League’s glass ceiling, they must turn admiration into achievement — and that may require setting sentiment aside for the sake of progress.
Sources: FourFourTwo, Opta
