England could miss Euro 2028 in unthinkable twist

November 13, 2025 Oliver Obel

The United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland are preparing to co-host the UEFA European Football Championship in 2028, one of the biggest events in world sport.

According to UEFA, matches will be staged across nine stadiums in England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland, with the official tournament draw set for 6 December 2026 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

In total, 24 teams will play 51 matches between June and July 2028. Qualification begins far earlier — from March to November 2027 — and the process may not favour the hosts.

No guaranteed ticket for the hosts

Even with hosting duties secured, none of the home nations will receive an automatic place. UEFA confirmed that England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland must all compete in qualifying, just like every other European side.

However, to ensure at least some host participation, two fallback slots have been set aside. These will go to the highest-ranked co-hosts that fail to qualify through the normal route.

“UEFA wanted to preserve competitive integrity while recognising the logistical demands of multi-nation hosting,” the organisation said in its 2024 qualification framework statement.

This means that if more than two hosts miss out during qualification, at least one nation could be left watching from the sidelines.

Rankings risk

At present, England appear safe. Gareth Southgate’s squad sit third in the FIFA Men’s World Ranking, well ahead of their co-hosts — Wales (34th), Scotland (38th) and the Republic of Ireland (62nd).

But FIFA rankings fluctuate. If England were to suffer a severe drop in form before the end of the 2027 qualifiers — and all four home nations failed to qualify directly — then only the two best-ranked among them would be given automatic entry.

That means England could, in theory, be left out of their own championship — a nightmare scenario, but one UEFA’s current system technically allows.

Experts unfazed

Most football analysts believe that scenario is highly unlikely. BBC Sport’s chief football writer has described England as “overwhelming favourites to qualify, whether through the group stages or as a top-ranked host nation.”

England’s recent performances and world ranking make them one of Europe’s most consistent and dangerous sides heading into 2028.

Lessons from Euro 2020

UEFA’s multi-host model isn’t new. A similar format was used for Euro 2020, when matches took place across 11 cities in different countries. All host nations had to qualify normally then as well — though most succeeded.

England not only qualified but reached the final at Wembley Stadium, losing narrowly to Italy on penalties. That experience serves as both inspiration and a reminder: hosting guarantees excitement, not qualification.

Looking ahead

For now, optimism remains high. England are widely expected to qualify comfortably and, if all goes to plan, will play every group-stage match in front of home supporters.

Still, the faint possibility of a Euros without England is enough to keep fans — and perhaps UEFA — nervously double-checking the rulebook.

Sources: UEFA, BBC Sport, The Mirror, FIFA