Europa League 2025–26: Top 15 Teams Ranked by Opta Supercomputer
With a new league format, big names in charge, and intense competition, the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League is wide open. Based on 10,000 tournament simulations, Opta's supercomputer has revealed each team's likelihood of lifting the trophy. Here are the 15 top contenders, ranked from lowest to highest chance of winning it all.
15. Midtjylland – 1.0% Chance of Winning
The Danish side might not have the budget or reputation of bigger clubs, but Midtjylland consistently punch above their weight in Europe.
Opta gives them a 15.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and 6.3% for the semis, which shows they're no easy out.
They'll rely heavily on their set-piece mastery and analytics-driven approach, which has served them well in past campaigns.
They may not be a household name, but underestimate Midtjylland at your own risk.
14. Celta de Vigo – 1.1% Chance of Winning
Celta haven’t featured in many recent European campaigns, but their La Liga experience and tactical flexibility could surprise a few.
They only have a 16.8% shot at reaching the top 8, but make the playoffs in over 50% of simulations.
The Galicians don’t have many stars, but in knockout formats, structure and discipline matter.
They’re a true dark horse — one big result could swing momentum their way.
13. Nice – 1.1% Chance of Winning
Nice are not regular Europa League contenders, but they have a strong spine and some rising French talent.
Despite a modest 11.3 xPoints in the league phase projections, they still win the tournament in 1.1% of sims.
Their route to the knockout stages isn’t easy — with only a 19.6% chance of finishing top 8 — but they could thrive in chaos.
If they find rhythm early, they might go further than expected.
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12. Genk – 1.2% Chance of Winning
The Belgian side is a perennial European qualifier, known for producing and showcasing young talent.
Genk have an 11.8% chance of finishing in the top 8, and a 9% shot at reaching the quarter-finals.
They’re solid but lack experience deep in knockout stages — something that could hold them back.
Still, their dynamic attacking style could unsettle bigger teams if underestimated.
11. Crvena zvezda (Red Star) – 1.4% Chance of Winning
The Serbian giants bring pedigree to the competition and are known for intimidating home atmospheres.
Crvena zvezda reach the quarter-finals in 20.4% of simulations, showing they could break into the deeper rounds.
They'll need to tighten up defensively, but if they reach the knockouts, their unpredictability makes them dangerous.
Europe loves a wildcard — and Red Star fits that profile.
10. Sporting Braga – 1.7% Chance of Winning
After a disappointing 2024–25 campaign, Braga are looking for redemption.
They have a strong Europa League tradition and reach the top 24 in nearly 75% of simulations.
However, their 1.7% chance of winning it all shows they need a nearly perfect run.
If they make it to the quarter-finals (23.3% chance), anything is possible — especially with the right draw.
9. Celtic – 1.8% Chance of Winning
Celtic fans weren’t thrilled to drop into the Europa League, but their passionate support and pedigree still count for something.
Opta says they have a 70.7% chance of surviving the league phase, despite receiving one of the toughest fixture draws.
Their chance to go all the way is slim at 1.8%, but they’ve overcome the odds before.
If Brendan Rodgers gets his side clicking, they could cause a few upsets.
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8. Fenerbahçe – 2.1% Chance of Winning
Now coached by Domenico Tedesco after José Mourinho’s departure, Fenerbahçe enter the Europa League with purpose.
They’ll be extra motivated by the final being hosted in Istanbul, just across the city at Beşiktaş’s stadium.
Despite a tough group (only 29% chance of a top 8 finish), the crowd factor and knockout experience matter.
They win the trophy in 2.1% of simulations — not favorites, but definitely contenders with a story to chase.
7. Real Betis – 2.6% Chance of Winning
Fresh off a Conference League final appearance, Betis bring both form and momentum.
Their path to success isn’t easy — they’re only projected to reach the top 8 in 25.8% of scenarios.
Still, they have big-game experience and a manager who knows how to control tempo.
If they escape the play-off round, their knockout record could serve them well.
6. Stuttgart – 2.8% Chance of Winning
Stuttgart are quietly building something special, and their DFB-Pokal win last season shows their competitive edge.
They only finished 9th in the Bundesliga, which may explain their underdog label.
Still, they reach the quarter-finals 31.4% of the time — higher than some more famous names.
With a balanced squad and improving form, Stuttgart could make a real push into the late stages.
5. Porto – 4.3% Chance of Winning
Porto have lifted this trophy twice before, and under new manager Francesco Farioli, they’re adapting fast.
They have a 40% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, and once they’re in knockout mode, they’re always a threat.
Their defensive stability and tournament experience make them hard to break down.
Though they only win the tournament in 4.3% of sims, that’s still enough to put them firmly in the mix.
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4. Bologna – 5.1% Chance of Winning
After years in the shadows, Bologna are enjoying a real resurgence. Last season’s Coppa Italia win ended a 51-year drought.
Manager Vincenzo Italiano has instilled belief and structure, and the squad has balance.
Opta gives them a 43% chance of making the quarter-finals and 10.9% of reaching the final.
With rhythm and momentum, Bologna could be a genuine surprise package this year.
3. Feyenoord – 5.2% Chance of Winning
With Robin van Persie now on the touchline, Feyenoord aim to recreate their 2002 glory — this time with their former star as manager.
They have tournament pedigree and were unlucky to exit the Champions League last season against Inter.
Opta rates them with a 39.5% shot at reaching the quarters, with a realistic path to the semis (21.1%).
Dutch clubs thrive on open, attacking play, and Feyenoord’s draw may give them the spark needed to go deep.
2. Roma – 12.8% Chance of Winning
Roma come into the competition with unfinished business, having lost the 2023 final and never won the Europa League.
Manager Gian Piero Gasperini knows how to navigate European ties, having lifted the trophy with Atalanta in 2024.
Their squad is deep, balanced, and experienced — and their simulations show consistent strength across stages.
With a 23.1% chance of making the final, this could finally be the year Roma go all the way.
1. Aston Villa – 21.6% Chance of Winning
No team is more favored than Aston Villa, who top the Opta supercomputer’s projections with a 21.6% chance of lifting the trophy.
Led by Unai Emery, the most successful coach in Europa League history, Villa are poised for a deep run.
They dominate simulation metrics: 71.9% for quarter-finals, 51.4% for semis, and 35.2% for the final.
Having stunned Bayern and pushed PSG last season in the Champions League, they now focus on winning it all.
For a club hungry for European glory since 1982, the stars may be aligning.
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