Kane is now the clear favourite. Bookmakers’ prices compiled by OLBG have the Bayern Munich striker at 1/2, with Yamal pushed back to 2/1. Both numbers have moved sharply inside a fortnight: at the start of October, Yamal was the 1/2 favourite and Kane the 6/4 challenger.

The next names on the list sit a long way back. Kylian Mbappé and Messi himself are both at 22/1, with Rodri and Michael Olise at 40/1.

First ceremony outside Paris

The 70th edition is the first time the gala has moved out of Paris. France Football has chosen the London Palladium as a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, the English winger who became the inaugural Ballon d’Or winner in 1956. The ceremony takes place on Monday 26 October, with DAZN carrying the ceremony as the exclusive worldwide broadcaster and the main event scheduled for the evening. Organisers say the move is temporary, with the gala expected to return to Paris in 2027.

Messi’s role: a report, not an official billing

Messi’s attendance has been confirmed. Everything Barca reported on 12 October that the Argentine and his family will be at the Palladium gala. Separate reporting has gone further and placed the eight-time winner on stage as the man presenting the trophy, a role France Football has not published on its official billing. It should be read as a report rather than confirmation.

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Messi has made this year’s 30-player shortlist after a season with Inter Miami and Argentina.

Kane’s case: 61 goals and a Bundesliga title

Kane’s claim is built on last season. He scored 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich in 2025-26, including 36 in the Bundesliga, winning the European Golden Shoe. Bayern took the Bundesliga title and the DFB-Pokal.

Yamal’s case: a Barcelona treble, then a hamstring

Yamal’s case rests on a domestic treble with Barcelona and his status as runner-up to Ousmane Dembélé in last year’s voting. The complication is a hamstring injury that has clouded his fitness going into the World Cup, enough, perhaps, for voters to weigh a longer, more consistent Kane campaign.

Red-carpet coverage on DAZN begins roughly an hour before the ceremony on 26 October.

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