Bayern paid €53m for Olise in July 2024. According to football data platform FootballTransfers, his estimated transfer value in October 2026 sits at €198.1m, inside a range that stretches to €217.9m. The initial outlay already looks like one of the shrewdest pieces of business in the modern Bundesliga.

Bayern’s contract push

Olise’s current deal runs until June 2029. Bayern want to extend that to 2032 and move him into the top wage bracket at the Allianz Arena, lifting his salary from around €15m to roughly €25m a year, in line with Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala. According to Christian Falk, the proposal is a direct response to interest from Madrid.

“You’ve heard the saying, if in trouble, make it double. The trouble is from Real Madrid,” Falk said.

The complication is that Olise is not simply signing. Bild has reported that he will only commit to a longer deal if it contains a release clause, with goal.com putting the figure at around £170m. Bayern insist publicly that he is not for sale, and are reportedly unwilling to give him beyond next summer to decide.

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Real Madrid circling

Real Madrid approached Bayern during the summer window and were turned away. Reports in June described an informal pact between club presidents Florentino Pérez and Herbert Hainer that no deal would be done in 2026, with Madrid said to have been willing to spend up to €220m. Pérez agreed not to pursue the player again without first consulting Hainer.

Why the valuation keeps climbing

Olise scored 12 Bundesliga goals in his first season at Bayern and 15 in his second, and has started the new campaign with four goals in his first four league matches, according to FootballTransfers’ performance data. He has also become one of the first names on the France team sheet under new head coach Zinedine Zidane, who succeeded Didier Deschamps after the 2026 World Cup.

Zidane has praised Olise’s temperament publicly.

“He’s a bit reserved and shy off the pitch, but that’s fine because on the pitch he’s not shy at all. He’s a natural leader,” Zidane said.

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Head coach Vincent Kompany uses him across the front line at Bayern. The club’s self-imposed deadline for an answer on the new contract is next summer.

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