Predicted Ligue 1 Final Standings in 25/26 Season
As the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season gets underway, all eyes are on the usual suspects, and a few surprise contenders, vying for glory in France’s top flight. Paris Saint-Germain remain the team to beat after completing a historic treble last year, but challengers like Lille, Monaco, and Marseille are eager to shake things up. The battle for European qualification is expected to be fierce, while newly promoted sides brace for a survival fight. Using 10,000 simulations, the Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers to project the final league standings. From title favourites to relegation risks, every club’s likely fate has been mapped out in detail. Here’s how the season is predicted to unfold, from bottom to top.
18. FC. Metz – 33.2 Points (Relegated)
Back in Ligue 1 after a dramatic play-off win over Reims, Metz are the favourites to finish bottom. They have a 17.4% chance of propping up the table and a 32.5% likelihood of going straight back down.
17. Lorient – 33.5 Points (Relegated)
Ligue 2 champions last season, Lorient face a tough return to the top flight. The model gives them a 31% chance of relegation, with little optimism about avoiding the drop despite their title-winning momentum.
16. Le Havre – 33.5 Points (Play-off Position)
After surviving by a single point last season, Le Havre are projected to finish 16th and face a relegation play-off. Their odds of direct relegation are also high at 30.8%.
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15. Paris FC – 33.7 Points
Making a historic return to Ligue 1 after 46 years, Paris FC are expected to struggle, with a 31.6% chance of relegation. They open their campaign against fellow strugglers Angers.
14. Angers – 35.5 Points
Another team pegged for a relegation battle. Angers have a 24% chance of going down directly, and will need to scrap hard to stay afloat this season.
13. Nantes – 37.6 Points
Nantes narrowly escaped last season and are again expected to finish in the lower mid-table. There’s an 18.4% risk of direct relegation, with a 10.2% chance of landing in the play-off spot.
12. Auxerre – 41.7 Points
A bit of a wild card, Auxerre are projected for a mid-table finish but also have an almost equal chance of a top-four place (6%) and a play-off battle (6.8%).
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11. Toulouse – 44.6 Points
Comfortably mid-table, Toulouse aren’t in the mix for Europe or the drop, according to the simulations. A stable if unspectacular season seems likely.
10. Rennes – 46.2 Points
Despite kicking off the season against Marseille, Rennes aren’t seen as serious contenders at either end of the table. A top-half finish is within reach, but not much more.
9. Brest – 47.5 Points
Brest made the Champions League play-offs last season but suffered a brutal 10-0 defeat to PSG. This year, a top-four return is possible (15.4%) but not expected.
8. Lens – 49.4 Points
Having been contenders for Europe in recent years, Lens are still in the hunt for a top-four finish (19.2%) but are expected to miss out narrowly.
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7. Strasbourg – 50.5 Points
A rising force with a solid chance (22.9%) of pushing into the top four, Strasbourg are one to watch if they can build on last season’s progress.
6. Nice – 50.7 Points
Nice grabbed a Champions League qualifying spot last term and have a 22.8% chance of doing it again. Still, they’re tipped to finish just outside the elite places.
5. Lyon – 56.5 Points
Fresh off a successful legal appeal to stay in Ligue 1, Paulo Fonseca’s side are strong candidates for a top-four finish (43%) and an outside title shot (3.4%).
4. Marseille – 56.5 Points
Roberto De Zerbi is back for a second season – a rarity at Marseille – and joint-top scorer Mason Greenwood gives them bite up front. They’re seen as top-four material, but not quite title favourites.
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3. Monaco – 57.8 Points
With Ansu Fati and Paul Pogba arriving, and a red-hot Mika Biereth up front, Monaco are tipped to finish third again. Their Champions League spot looks relatively secure.
2. Lille – 58.8 Points
Despite losing star striker Jonathan David, Lille are projected for a second-place finish. Olivier Giroud’s arrival could be key, and their 51.4% chance of finishing in the top three reflects solid foundations.
1. Paris Saint-Germain – 78.7 Points (Champions)
No surprises here. PSG are the dominant force, with a 78.7% chance of winning a fifth straight title. Dembélé leads the charge, and despite a quiet transfer window, they remain streets ahead of the rest.
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