Premier League supercomputer ranking: Every club’s season so far, from 20th to 1st

The Premier League run-in has brought sharper focus to a season already full of twists, false starts and surprise storylines. Based on the updated supercomputer projections in the source material, this is how the table is expected to finish, starting at the very bottom and working all the way up to the title winners. Some clubs have been dragged down by chaos, poor form or managerial upheaval, while others have turned consistency, smart recruitment and timely results into real momentum. What follows is a ranked, club-by-club look at the biggest problems and the biggest positives for every side so far. From Wolverhampton Wanderers’ fight against the odds to Arsenal’s push to end a title drought, the picture is dramatic almost everywhere you look.

20. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton Wanderers are still tipped to finish bottom, and their dreadful start is the biggest reason why. They had to wait until their 20th league game for a first win, which left them chasing the pack for months and created damage that may simply be too deep to repair. There have at least been signs of spirit lately, with surprise victories over Aston Villa and Liverpool helping Rob Edwards’ side restore a little pride. They now have 17 points on the board, which gives them something to fight for, even if the projection still leaves them on just 25 by the end. The positive is that Wolves have shown they are not completely finished, but the negative is that they may have left themselves too much to do.

19. Burnley

Burnley are expected to go straight back down, and the numbers in the source make grim reading. Scott Parker’s side have won only one of their last 22 league matches, a 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace, and that lack of consistent quality has left them in deep trouble. The projection gives them just 26 points, which underlines how little faith there is in a late escape. Their biggest issue has been an inability to turn games into wins, even when they have stayed competitive. The one clear positive is that they have at least shown they can hurt teams on the right day, but those moments have simply been too rare.

18. West Ham United

West Ham United are predicted to suffer relegation despite some signs of life at the London Stadium. Wins over Burnley, Sunderland, Tottenham and Fulham, plus a major point at home to Manchester City, suggest there has been some fight and some recovery in the squad. Even so, the supercomputer still only sees 37 points and an 18th-place finish, which shows how damaging the earlier struggles have been. The Hammers’ main problem is that small bursts of improvement have not yet turned into sustained momentum. Their positive is obvious enough: there are results in there to suggest they are not hopeless, but right now the recovery still looks too shallow.

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17. Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur are forecast to stay up, but only just, and that says everything about how badly this campaign has unravelled. After Ange Postecoglou delivered Europa League glory in 2024/25, there was real hope that Thomas Frank could build on that success, only for him to be dismissed before completing a season. His replacement, Igor Tudor, then lasted only seven matches, which sums up the instability around the club. Spurs are projected to finish on 38 points, narrowly clear of the drop zone, and that would count as a miserable domestic season by their standards. The positive is simply survival, while the negative is that managerial churn and underperformance have dragged them into a battle they never should have been fighting.

16. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest are projected to finish 16th, just one point behind Leeds United, and that would represent a sharp comedown after last season’s surprise run to European qualification. The campaign has been chaotic, with the club reportedly going through three managers after Sean Dyche’s dismissal, and that sort of upheaval rarely leads anywhere good. Even so, the projection still gives Forest enough to survive, which is the main bright point in an otherwise turbulent year. Their biggest problem has clearly been instability, both in results and in leadership. Their biggest positive is that, for all the disorder, they may still do enough to stay in the division.

15. Leeds United

Leeds United are expected to finish 15th, and survival would count as a meaningful success in their first season back in the Premier League. The source suggests they could still be dragged into a relegation scrap, so this is far from a comfortable campaign, but they have at least been given a real chance of staying up. A projected total of 42 points would leave them just above the worst of the chaos below. The obvious concern is that their margin for error remains small, which means every bad run feels dangerous. The positive, though, is huge: unlike so many promoted teams in recent seasons, Leeds look capable of avoiding an immediate return to the Championship.

14. Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have had one of the strangest seasons in the division, mixing major success with growing uncertainty. After winning the FA Cup, the club’s first major honour, they beat Liverpool in the Community Shield and then did it again in the league, which seemed to confirm that Oliver Glasner had built something serious. Since then, though, things have become much less stable, with captain Marc Guehi sold to Manchester City and Glasner announcing he will leave when his contract expires. Palace are still projected to finish 14th on 48 points, which is respectable enough, but it feels short of what once looked possible. The positives are obvious in the silverware and statement wins, while the negatives lie in the turbulence that has followed.

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13. Bournemouth

Bournemouth continue to impress by punching above their weight, and another solid finish would be further proof of that. Even after losing Antoine Semenyo in the winter window, the Cherries are still projected to end the season in 13th place on 51 points. That speaks to a team that keeps finding ways to stay competitive despite losing key players. A strong draw against an in-form Manchester United also shows they remain difficult to beat on their day. Their problem is that they may lack the depth to push much higher, but their positive is that they still refuse to fade away.

12. Sunderland

Sunderland are predicted to finish 12th, and that would be a strong return to the Premier League. The source says they are still in the mix for a top-10 finish, although a recent wobble has slowed some of that momentum. Even so, survival has looked more realistic for them than for many promoted teams in recent years, and that alone is a major credit. Their biggest issue is consistency, because a stronger run could have put them even higher in the table. The positive is that they have returned with enough energy and quality to look like they belong at this level.

11. Newcastle United

Newcastle United are forecast to finish 11th, which feels underwhelming given the flashes of quality they have shown. There have been impressive wins against top sides, including Manchester City, but those highs have been offset by damaging defeats and a failure to sustain momentum. Losing both Tyne-Wear derbies to Sunderland is highlighted as one of the low points of their season. That pattern of running hot and cold is the central reason they are being projected for the bottom half rather than the European race. The positive is that the ceiling still looks high, but the negative is that they have not come close to reaching it often enough.

10. Fulham

Fulham are projected to finish 10th, which reflects a decent season without quite making the leap some supporters may have wanted. The source points out that this club has often struggled to break through the glass ceiling, and this campaign seems to fit that familiar pattern. Back-to-back wins over Sunderland and Tottenham briefly gave them momentum, but dropped points against West Ham and Nottingham Forest have hurt their push. The strength of Fulham’s season is that they remain competitive and awkward to face. The weakness is that, just when they look ready to kick on, they seem to lose ground again.

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9. Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton & Hove Albion have gone a little under the radar, but they are still projected to finish ninth after a strong recent spell. Fabian Hurzeler’s side came through a difficult period in January and February and then responded by winning four of their last five league matches. That form has quietly re-established them as one of the league’s better-organised teams. The main issue is that others have grabbed the spotlight, which says something about how uneven Brighton’s season has been at times. The positive is that they have steadied themselves well and are ending the campaign with some momentum.

8. Everton

Everton are expected to finish eighth, and that would make this a very encouraging campaign. With fresh American ownership, a new stadium and the arrival of Jack Grealish as part of summer attacking reinforcements, there was a sense before the season that something interesting could develop under David Moyes. A huge 3-0 win over Chelsea has only strengthened that feeling. Their biggest positive is that they appear to have a clear direction and a fresh level of ambition. The challenge now is turning promising signs into the kind of consistency that would push them even closer to Europe.

7. Brentford

Brentford are projected to finish seventh, which would be an excellent achievement given the scale of change they faced. Bryan Mbeumo left for Manchester United, Yoane Wissa moved to Newcastle United and Thomas Frank departed for Tottenham, so there were plenty of reasons to fear a difficult year. Instead, Keith Andrews has guided the club through major disruption and kept them moving forward. The positive is obvious: Brentford have shown resilience, structure and an ability to absorb heavy losses without collapsing. The negative is simply that losing so much quality makes any long-term progress harder, but for now they have handled it brilliantly.

6. Chelsea

Chelsea are tipped to finish sixth, which captures the uncertainty that still surrounds them under Liam Rosenior. There have been moments when they have looked capable of pushing for the Champions League places, but defeats against Newcastle United and Everton have exposed how fragile that progress remains. The source describes them as a team going through a rough patch, and that feels fair. Their biggest problem is that it is still difficult to pin down exactly what level they are operating at from week to week. The positive is that the top four is still close enough to keep pressure on, but they need a sharp response.

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5. Liverpool

Liverpool are projected to finish fifth, and that would make for a turbulent second season under Arne Slot. After winning the Premier League title and then adding high-profile names like Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, many expected the Reds to begin a new era of dominance. Instead, things have become unstable, and the source even raises doubts over whether Slot will still be in charge next season. The positive is that a top-five finish would at least keep the damage under some control. The negative is that, with the expectations around the club, anything short of a serious title push feels like a major disappointment.

4. Aston Villa

Aston Villa are still predicted to finish fourth, but their recent slide has turned what once looked like a title outsider’s season into a fight for a Champions League place. Poor results have hurt badly, including a 2-0 defeat away to Wolves and a 3-1 loss to Manchester United at Old Trafford. That drop in form has taken away some of the excitement that surrounded them earlier in the campaign. The positive is that they remain in a strong enough position to secure a top-four finish. The problem is that their momentum has faded at exactly the wrong time, and the pressure is now much greater.

3. Manchester United

Manchester United are forecast to finish third, which would have seemed wildly unlikely not long ago. Around the time Ruben Amorim was dismissed in early January, a top-four finish looked beyond them, but Michael Carrick has transformed the mood by winning seven of his first nine matches in charge. Big victories over Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa have changed the feel of their season completely. Their biggest positive is clear: they have recovered belief and momentum under new leadership. The only concern is that dropped points in two of the last three league games show there is still work to do, even if the overall turnaround has been dramatic.

2. Manchester City

Manchester City are expected to finish second on 75 points, and they remain the one team with the quality to make Arsenal nervous. Pep Guardiola’s side have also won the Carabao Cup after beating Arsenal, which gives them silverware and another reminder of their elite standards. Being knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid in the last 16 means they can now focus fully on domestic competition. That is the positive, because no one would dismiss City in a title race if they sense weakness ahead of them. The problem is that the projection still leaves them ten points short of first, showing that even they may have left themselves too much ground to make up.

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1. Arsenal

Arsenal are projected to win the league on 85 points, and that would finally end a wait of more than two decades for the title. Mikel Arteta’s side have kept themselves on course while also advancing to the Champions League quarter-finals, and a key win over Everton has strengthened their position at the top. The source frames this as the payoff for patience, with Arsenal now looking ready to remove any lingering doubt about Arteta’s credentials as an elite coach. Their greatest positive is that they have turned years of near-misses into a genuine title-winning platform. The pressure, of course, is that they still need to finish the job, but if they do, this could be the triumph that changes everything around the club.