Supercomputer Predicts La Liga 25/26 Table
20: Elche
Elche are tipped to finish last in the 2025–26 La Liga season, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 13.1% chance of propping up the table. Freshly promoted, their survival odds sit at just 67.4%.
It’s a brutal return to the top flight, and the model doesn’t show much optimism. While there’s always a chance to defy expectations, Elche’s thin squad depth could be their undoing.
19: Real Oviedo
Real Oviedo are back in La Liga for the first time since 2000–01, but their fairytale return might end in heartbreak. They’re projected to finish 19th, also with a 67.4% survival chance.
Santi Cazorla, now 40, adds star power and experience to the squad, but early fixtures against Villarreal, Real Madrid, and Real Sociedad will test their mettle fast.
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18: Levante
Levante won the Segunda División last season, but their average projected finish (18th) suggests trouble ahead. They have the best survival odds (70.6%) of the three promoted teams, yet relegation looms close.
The club will need to punch above its weight to avoid the drop, something that may hinge on how well they adapt early on.
17: Getafe
Although Getafe ended last season in 13th, they were only two points above relegation. The model places them 17th, with a 28.7% chance of going down.
They’ve made no major moves to shore up their squad, and another tight relegation scrap appears all but inevitable unless form improves.
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16: Espanyol
After returning to La Liga, Espanyol’s forecast sees them finishing 16th. The departure of goalkeeper Joan Garcia to Barcelona is a major blow, but they’re still given a 75.2% chance of survival.
They’ll need to find consistency early, especially at the back, to avoid falling into the relegation pack.
15: Sevilla
Sevilla have suffered a steep decline since their 2023 Europa League triumph. They finished 17th last season and are now predicted to place 15th, with a concerning 23.7% chance of relegation.
For a club used to challenging for Europe, simply avoiding the drop is now the goal. It’s been a swift and painful fall from grace.
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14: Girona
After a magical 2023–24 season, Girona fell to 16th last term. The supercomputer projects a slight recovery to 14th this time, though their top-four odds sit at a slim 3%.
They’ll need to rediscover their attacking edge quickly if they want to climb back into European contention.
13: Alavés
Alavés are pegged for a mid-table 13th-place finish. That would represent another solid step forward for a side that’s focused on stability rather than stardom.
They’ll be content to stay well clear of the relegation dogfight and build toward a more ambitious future.
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12: Mallorca
Mallorca’s forecasted 12th-place finish suggests a season of safety, but little excitement. There’s no serious danger of relegation, nor is there much European ambition.
It’s the kind of year where establishing a strong home record and blooding young talent may become the priority.
11: Rayo Vallecano
Rayo were the surprise package last season, finishing eighth. This time around, they’re predicted to slide slightly to 11th, with a 25.4% chance of repeating a top-eight finish.
Their gritty, team-first mentality has earned admiration, but repeating past heroics won’t be easy in a more competitive mid-table.
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10: Valencia
Despite a disappointing 12th-place finish last season, Valencia are forecast to rise to 10th. With just a 7.3% shot at the top four, their European ambitions remain distant.
A tight pack in the middle of the table means fine margins will decide whether this year marks real progress or more frustration.
9: Real Sociedad
La Real had a season to forget, finishing 11th last year. With new boss Sergio Francisco at the helm, they’re expected to climb back into the top half at ninth.
However, their chances of returning to the Champions League are lower than their relegation risk, a worrying sign for a club that had loftier expectations not long ago.
8: Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo may not generate headlines, but the supercomputer tips them for an eighth-place finish, right on the edge of Europe.
With strong attacking talent and a balanced squad, they could sneak into continental contention if bigger clubs stumble.
7: Osasuna
Osasuna are tipped for seventh, with 11.2% odds of breaking into the Champions League spots. That’s impressive, especially considering they had the fourth-worst expected goals against (xGA) last season.
If they can shore up defensively, they could be one of the league’s dark horses.
6: Real Betis
Betis reached the Conference League final last season, and they’re forecast for another strong showing, sixth place and a 17.6% shot at the top four.
While not quite Champions League material, they remain a reliable force in the top half, spearheaded by smart recruitment and steady performances.
5: Athletic Club
Athletic Club’s fourth-place finish last season brought Champions League football back to Bilbao. They’re expected to remain in the hunt, with a 34.1% chance of a top-four finish.
With Nico Williams still on the wing and Valverde’s system holding strong, another European adventure is well within reach.
4: Villarreal
Villarreal are forecast to round out the top four. They’ve lost key players like Alex Baena and Thierno Barry, but their overall top-four odds remain solid at 37.7%.
If they can adjust quickly and find new attacking leaders, they might just cement themselves among Spain’s elite again.
3: Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid remain a solid third-place side, with just an 11.7% chance of claiming the title. Diego Simeone’s team is in a rebuilding phase but still resilient.
Their expected goals against (xGA) of 33.6 was La Liga’s best last year, a foundation that should keep them in the top tier.
2: Real Madrid
Xabi Alonso’s reign begins in earnest this season, and Real Madrid are given a 32.1% shot at winning La Liga, higher than their 28.7% odds of finishing second.
With signings like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Franco Mastantuono joining a squad headlined by Mbappé and Bellingham, Los Blancos look ready to challenge again.
1: Barcelona
Barcelona are favourites to defend their crown, with a 46.5% chance of topping La Liga again. Hansi Flick’s side scored a league-high 102 goals last season and dominated in expected goals and creativity.
Raphinha, Lewandowski, and wonderkid Yamal lead a fearsome frontline. With Marcus Rashford now on loan, they’re even stronger. The title is theirs to lose.
