Supercomputer Predicts Women’s Super League 2025–26
The 2025–26 Women’s Super League season is set to be a defining one. It’s the final campaign before expansion to 14 teams, and with that comes a playoff twist: instead of automatic relegation, the team that finishes bottom will face a do-or-die clash with the third-place side from WSL 2. With high stakes at both ends of the table, the Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations to predict what might unfold.
Chelsea: Still the team to beat (72.4% title chance)
Champions six years in a row, Chelsea start this season as overwhelming favourites. The model gives them a 72.4% chance of lifting the title, and it's easy to see why. Last year, they went unbeaten across 22 games, scored 60 points (a WSL record), and ended 12 points ahead of second place.
New head coach Sonia Bompastor made an instant impact, and now she’s bidding to become the first non-English manager to win multiple WSL titles. The numbers suggest she’s on track.
Manchester City: Strong challengers, but still behind (13.6%)
City endured a frustrating 2024–25 season, missing out on European football with a fourth-place finish. But the supercomputer sees promise: 13.6% title chance and a solid 79.0% chance of finishing top three.
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With stars like Lauren Hemp (top assister last season) and Khadija Shaw (Golden Boot winner), plus new signings like Jade Rose and Laura Wienroither, City have the firepower. Andrée Jeglertz’s task is to turn that into consistent dominance.
Arsenal: Champions League winners, domestic hopefuls (10.1%)
Fresh from conquering Europe, Arsenal’s domestic ambitions remain high. They were the most prolific scorers in the WSL last season (62 goals) and now boast rising star Olivia Smith, signed from Liverpool for a record-breaking £1 million.
The Opta model gives them a 10.1% shot at the title, and 72.4% chance of reaching the Champions League. With 15 different goalscorers last year, depth won’t be a problem. Ending a six-year league drought, though, remains a tough ask.
United in the mix — and hungry (46.7% UCL chance)
After a bounce-back season in 2024–25, Manchester United are back in the conversation. They finished third, earned Marc Skinner a contract extension, and signed Fridolina Rolfö, a versatile winner from Barcelona.
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The supercomputer gives them a 46.7% chance of finishing top three. For now, United remain outside the title favourites, but if momentum builds, they could disrupt the established top three.
Relegation? Leicester in danger (25.7%)
This season’s bottom side won't go down automatically but instead face a playoff. Leicester City are the most at risk, with a 25.7% chance of finishing 12th. Their 20 points last season left them second from bottom, and scoring struggles remain a concern.
Close behind are West Ham (15.4%), London City Lionesses (15.0%), and Brighton (14.4%)—all teams who need strong starts to avoid the drop zone danger.
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