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The data behind the Premier League title race and top-four battle

January 15, 2026 Oliver Obel

As the Premier League season moves beyond its midpoint, the league table is beginning to reflect more than short-term swings in fortune. Patterns are emerging that help distinguish sustainable performance from results built on fine margins.

One of the most widely used tools for that assessment is expected goals (xG), a model that estimates the likelihood of chances becoming goals based on factors such as location and situation. While it cannot capture every aspect of the game, it offers a useful long-term indicator of how teams are really playing.

Why expected goals matter

Over multiple seasons, teams that consistently create higher-quality chances than they concede tend to finish near the top of the table. Strong xG difference does not guarantee success, but it usually places sides in a position where results are more likely to follow.

Looking at the current campaign through that lens, several trends are becoming difficult to ignore.

Arsenal and the title picture

Despite Pep Guardiola’s attempts to play down the idea, the data points towards a title race largely shaped by two clubs. Arsenal’s underlying numbers place them marginally ahead of the rest of the league, making them the strongest performers across the season so far.

That should encourage supporters. In three of the past four Premier League seasons, the team with the best xG difference went on to lift the trophy. The lone exception was 2023–24, when Manchester City won the title despite Arsenal holding the edge in underlying metrics.

This year, Arsenal are not dominating matches to the same extent they did two seasons ago. At the same time, City have not consistently reached the relentless level that has defined Guardiola’s best sides. That narrowing gap helps explain why the race remains finely balanced.

The battle for Champions League places

Below the top two, the fight for Champions League qualification looks crowded. With several positions close to being settled, one possibly two remaining places appear likely to be contested by Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea.

Manchester United’s presence near the top of the xG rankings may surprise some, particularly after Ruben Amorim’s departure following a Premier League win rate of 32%. However, performance data indicates gradual improvement during his final months in charge.

Interim manager Michael Carrick has taken over a squad whose recent underlying numbers resemble those of a top-six side, even if results have not always followed immediately.

Teams outperforming and underperforming the data

For most clubs, points totals broadly align with performance levels. A small number, however, sit noticeably away from the league-wide trend.

Aston Villa and Sunderland have taken more points than their xG difference would normally predict. According to Opta, Villa have a 96% probability of qualifying for the Champions League, while Sunderland are given a 99% chance of avoiding relegation.

Their success has been driven by factors that are difficult to sustain indefinitely: Villa’s exceptional long-range finishing and standout goalkeeping from Sunderland’s Robin Roefs. While neither side’s league position is undeserved, historical comparisons suggest maintaining that level of efficiency is rare over multiple seasons.

Supporters may argue that Villa regularly exceed xG expectations under Unai Emery, or that Sunderland’s collective resilience is undervalued by models. Even so, when set against a decade of Premier League data, both clubs stand out as unusually effective in converting performance into points.

When results catch up with performances

At the opposite end of the scale, Wolves illustrate how results can lag behind play. Although they have often looked like a relegation-threatened side, their underlying numbers were stronger than their early-season points haul suggested. Recent improvements have brought outcomes closer to those performances.

Tottenham and Leeds provide similar lessons. Early results painted misleading pictures of both teams’ trajectories, but over time their league positions drifted closer to what their chance creation and prevention levels implied.

Reading the numbers with caution

Expected goals is not a crystal ball. It cannot fully measure confidence, tactical discipline, or the psychological momentum that shapes football seasons. But its track record shows it is a reliable guide over longer periods.

Whether Arsenal can translate statistical superiority into a title, and whether sides currently exceeding expectations can continue to do so, are questions that will be answered over the final months of the campaign.

Sources: Opta