Who could lose their F1 seat after 2026?
Formula 1’s next technical reset is close enough to feel real, and for several drivers, it arrives alongside a far more personal deadline.
The 2026 season will not just usher in new cars and new rules. It will also decide who remains part of the grid when the sport settles into its next cycle, with a number of contracts expiring at the same time.
New rules, higher pressure
Pre-season testing begins later this month in Bahrain, following a private January test in Barcelona where Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton set the fastest time. The championship itself opens in March at the Australian Grand Prix.
Formula 1 says the new regulations will produce smaller, lighter cars with a greater reliance on battery power. Teams expect closer racing and that tends to leave less room for drivers who struggle to adapt.
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Against that backdrop, ESPN reports that seven drivers currently have deals that expire at the end of the 2026 season.
Mercedes faces internal tension
At Mercedes, both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli enter the new era without guarantees beyond 2026.
Russell has acknowledged that his contract includes a performance-based clause tied to an automatic extension.
“If I'm performing [in 2026], we have a specific clause that if I reach [a target], we will automatically renew for 2027,” he said.
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Antonelli’s position appears less defined. Asked about his future, the Italian made clear that nothing is assumed.
“I race year by year, and the goal is always to deliver the best result possible,” Antonelli said.
Young drivers with little margin
ESPN describes Arvid Lindblad as the only rookie expected on the 2026 grid. The 18-year-old will drive for Visa Cash App Racing Bulls on a one-year contract, leaving him little time to settle in.
His teammate, Liam Lawson, knows the stakes well. After a difficult and brief spell at Red Bull earlier in his career, Lawson is again under scrutiny. ESPN notes that outperforming his rookie teammate may be essential if he wants to stay in contention for 2027.
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At Red Bull’s senior team, Isack Hadjar also faces a decisive period. Promoted after a strong rookie season, his contract runs through 2026, with his future expected to depend on how he measures up over the next two years.
Experience offers no protection
Even the grid’s most seasoned figures are not immune. Fernando Alonso, a two-time world champion, will be 44 during the 2026 season. While his performances for Aston Martin remain competitive, retirement is clearly part of the conversation.
“It depends on the feeling I have next year, how I feel physically and mentally,” Alonso said. “If the car went well, there's a good chance it will be my last year.”
Further down the grid, Franco Colapinto faces a different challenge. After an uneven 2025 campaign, ESPN reports the 22-year-old Argentine will likely need to outperform teammate Pierre Gasly to secure a future beyond his current deal.
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A crowded decision point
With major regulation changes and multiple contracts expiring at once, 2026 is shaping up as a pressure test across the grid. For those without long-term security, reputation may count for less than lap times, points and adaptability.
Sources: ESPN, Formula 1
