The 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, has delivered a spectacle so far, with the knockout rounds now firmly underway. As teams prepare for the next stage, Opta’s Supercomputer has updated its predictions for the tournament winner, with France and reigning champions Argentina leading the pack as of July 3, 2026, 9:54 AM GMT+1. The road to the final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, on July 19, remains fraught with challenges, as evidenced by some high-profile early exits.
France and Argentina lead the charge
France, the 2018 champions, currently boast the highest probability of lifting the trophy, with Opta giving them a 29.50% chance. Didier Deschamps’ side made light work of their group stage, winning all three matches against Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. Their momentum continued into the Round of 32, where they comfortably dispatched Sweden. Key to their success has been the attacking prowess of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, who have each netted four goals in the group games. France now faces Paraguay in the last 16.
Argentina, aiming to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their World Cup crown, are second favourites with a 14.42% chance. Lionel Messi has been in sublime form, scoring six goals in the group stage, including a hat-trick in a dominant 3-0 victory over Algeria. They won all three of their group matches and will play Cape Verde in the last 32.
Rounding out the top five contenders are:
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- Spain: 13.17%
- Brazil: 9.08%
- England: 8.70%
Spain bounced back from an opening 0-0 draw against Cape Verde with convincing wins over Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, before breezing past Austria 3-0 in the Round of 32. They are set for a tantalising last-16 clash against Iberian rivals Portugal. Brazil, who last lifted the World Cup 24 years ago, secured seven points from a possible nine in their group against Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland, before beating Japan in the Round of 32. They will now compete with Norway for a place in the quarter-finals. England topped their group after a strong start against Croatia, a draw with Ghana, and a victory over Panama, then beat DR Congo in the last 32 with Harry Kane sealing the win. They now face host nation Mexico.
Surprises, upsets, and host nation hopes
The tournament has already seen its share of upsets. Germany, despite their pedigree, were eliminated in the Round of 32 via a penalty shootout defeat to Paraguay. The Netherlands suffered a similar fate, losing to AFCON champions Morocco in a penalty shootout. Croatia’s journey ended against Portugal following a controversial VAR review, a decision FIFA later addressed in a statement.
Morocco, who made history as the first African team to reach a World Cup semi-final in 2022, have climbed to seventh in Opta’s predictions with a 3.39% chance following their dramatic win over the Netherlands. They are slated to face Canada next. Norway, with Erling Haaland scoring his fifth goal of the tournament, defeated Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32, giving them a 3.04% chance.
The host nations have had mixed fortunes. Canada, described as the least likely host nation to win the tournament, became the first side to make the last 16 with a 1-0 victory against South Africa and now holds a 0.57% chance. Mexico, with a 2.55% chance, will host England at their iconic Azteca Stadium. The United States, impressive this summer, secured a 2-0 victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina to reach the last 16, giving them a 2.06% chance. However, they will be without Folarin Balogun for their next match against Belgium, following a controversial red card in the Round of 32.
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As the knockout stage unfolds, the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions provide a fascinating insight into the potential outcomes, but the drama on the pitch continues to remind us that anything can happen in the beautiful game.
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