Stage 16 of the Tour de France brings the race back to life after its final rest day, with a time trial that may prove more decisive for the podium than for the yellow jersey.

The riders will race 26.1 kilometres from Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains on Tuesday, tackling approximately 500 metres of elevation. The first rider is scheduled to start at 13:00, with race leader Tadej Pogacar leaving the ramp last at 17:15 and expected to finish shortly before 17:50.

Evenepoel has the stage Pogacar does not need

Pogacar enters the final week with a five-minute advantage over Remco Evenepoel after Jonas Vingegaard’s crash and withdrawal on Stage 15.

That margin means the Slovenian does not need to take maximum risks. Evenepoel, by contrast, has every reason to attack the course in search of a stage victory and additional protection for second place.

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The Belgian is widely regarded as the narrow favourite for the day. As Australian time-trial specialist Luke Plapp put it in Cyclingnews’ preview of Stage 16:

“First it’s all out and then it’s hope you can hold on.”

Evenepoel’s power and aerodynamic efficiency should make him exceptionally difficult to beat on the flatter closing kilometres. The problem is that the opening climb also plays directly to Pogacar’s strengths.

Pogacar may therefore lose a handful of seconds without placing the yellow jersey in danger. Evenepoel would need an extraordinary performance, combined with a complete collapse from the race leader, to erase five minutes over such a short distance.

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The climb will decide how much power is left

The course begins by rising away from Lake Geneva towards the Côte de Larringes.

The classified climb measures 9.7 kilometres at an average gradient of 4.3 per cent, with its summit coming after 9.7 kilometres of racing. It is considerably longer than originally stated in some previews, while the official Tour route lists approximately 500 metres of total elevation rather than 470.

The gradient is gentle enough for the leading contenders to remain on their time-trial bikes. That should benefit powerful riders such as Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling, although both must avoid pushing beyond their limits before the descent.

Ganna remains a genuine stage contender, but the Italian’s team has acknowledged that the long opening climb makes this a less natural assignment for a pure specialist. Former Tour winner Geraint Thomas described his team’s expectations as cautious because of the terrain, while still insisting that Ganna has the form to challenge.

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The descent towards Thonon-les-Bains contains several technical sections where confidence and course knowledge will matter. The final eight to nine kilometres are much flatter, but include enough corners and changes of direction to punish anyone who has emptied their legs on the climb.

It is therefore not simply a contest of raw strength. Riders must judge how much energy to spend before the summit while preserving enough power to hold an aerodynamic position on the run to the finish.

The podium battle may produce the biggest changes

Pogacar’s advantage makes him extremely difficult to dislodge, but the positions immediately behind him remain vulnerable.

Evenepoel begins the stage five minutes behind the yellow jersey but 58 seconds ahead of Isaac del Toro. Paul Seixas is another 25 seconds back, followed by Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso. Only one minute and 30 seconds separates Del Toro in third from Ayuso in sixth.

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That is where the greatest movement can be expected.

Evenepoel has an opportunity to place a substantial buffer between himself and the young climbers before three major Alpine stages. Del Toro must defend both third place and the white jersey, while Seixas, Lipowitz and Ayuso can all move onto the provisional podium with a strong ride.

For Seixas in particular, the stage represents a new test. The 19-year-old has excelled in the mountains but now has to manage a specialist discipline under the pressure of a Tour podium battle.

Lipowitz may be the rider best placed to gain from mistakes around him. He starts only 25 seconds behind Seixas and has the advantage of sharing a team with Evenepoel, whose equipment preparation and course analysis should be among the strongest in the race.

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Pogacar has already mastered a similar test

The route is not as difficult as the final time trial of the 2024 Tour, but Pogacar’s performance that day remains a warning to Evenepoel and the other specialists.

On the 33.7-kilometre course from Monaco to Nice, Pogacar beat Vingegaard by one minute and three seconds. Evenepoel finished one minute and 14 seconds behind the Slovenian despite being the reigning world time-trial champion.

That result showed that Pogacar does not require a mountain finish to dominate. When the course combines climbing, descending and technical riding, he is capable of matching pure time-trial specialists before using his superior climbing speed to create the difference.

The 2026 course is shorter and less severe, which slightly improves Evenepoel’s chances. Nevertheless, anyone expecting Pogacar merely to defend his lead may be disappointed. His recent history suggests he will still ride for the victory.

Stage verdict

Evenepoel is the marginal favourite for the stage because of the fast final section and his need to attack. Pogacar, however, is the safer overall prediction on such a balanced route.

The yellow jersey should remain on the Slovenian’s shoulders unless he suffers a crash, mechanical failure or an exceptionally poor day.

The more significant contest is likely to unfold behind him. Evenepoel can take a major step towards securing second place, while Del Toro, Seixas, Lipowitz and Ayuso face a 26.1-kilometre fight that could completely reorder the Tour podium before the race reaches the Alps.