Manchester City sit top of the Premier League this week. A former Everton chief executive believes they will be docked 50 points before the season is out, a punishment that would leave them at the foot of the table.

That was the number put forward by Keith Wyness, days after David Ornstein of The Athletic reported on Friday 25 September that an independent commission had found City guilty on 114 of the 115 financial charges brought by the Premier League. The commission’s decision followed a hearing that ran from mid-September to 6 December 2024, nearly two years before the ruling emerged.

The charges concern alleged breaches between 2009 and 2018, covering inaccurate financial reporting, undisclosed manager and player compensation, and a failure to cooperate with the investigation. City have signalled they will appeal, reiterating in a statement that the club “has diligently respected due process for eight years.”

Wyness: appeal “tenuous at best”

Speaking to Football Insider, Keith Wyness argued the club’s legal route is narrowing.

Read also: Tadej Pogacar breaks silence after missing World Championships

“It seems to be that the appeal is tenuous at best for City,” he said.

“It will be very hard to appeal on facts, so they will have to appeal on points of law.”

He then put the projected punishment in numbers.

“That would certainly include something up to 50 points, which would probably ensure relegation in some way.”

Read also: Bayern make Michael Olise move as Liverpool threat grows

Wyness also expects a substantial fine on top of any deduction, and estimated the appeal process itself will take “two or three months maximum,” since a challenge on legal grounds tends to move faster than one on the facts.

Everton lost 8, Forest 4 – City could lose 50

Enzo Maresca’s team went into the September international break sitting top of the Premier League, the only side in the top-flight with a perfect record of five wins from five. A 50-point deduction from that total would push City into negative digits before another ball is kicked, well below the clubs currently occupying the relegation places.

The scale is unfamiliar in English football. Everton were docked 6 points and then 2 more for profit and sustainability breaches in 2023-24. Nottingham Forest were hit with 4 points for their own overspend. Nothing in Premier League disciplinary history sits within touching distance of a 50-point sanction.

Not every expert has committed to a specific number. Stefan Borson, a football finance analyst who has previously advised the club, was similarly blunt on the appeal odds, telling talkSPORT the club is in “very, very serious trouble” and calling an appeal “extremely difficult.”

Read also: Mads Pedersen breaks silence after stunning World Championship comeback

The 14-day window

Both parties have 14 days from receipt of the verdict to lodge an appeal, putting the deadline in the first half of October. A separate three-person commission will then hear the challenge, and its ruling cannot be taken to the Court of Arbitration for Sport under the Premier League’s own rules.

Points deductions can, in theory, be imposed while an appeal is pending. The sanctions panel that will decide City’s actual punishment has not yet been convened.

Read also: Mancini on Manchester City verdict: 'I don't think they were found guilty'