For the first time in his career, Alexander Zverev can plan his route to the top of men’s tennis in two concrete steps.

The German beat Cameron Norrie 7-6 (1), 6-4 on Thursday in his opening match at the China Open, firing 15 aces and extending his head-to-head record against the Briton to 9-0. He is now the top seed in Beijing after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal, and the ATP Rankings are closer than they have been all year.

Sinner leads Zverev by 1,370 points, 11,000 to 9,630. Both numbers are about to move, and only one of them in the right direction for the Italian.

The exact path, step by step

Beijing hands Zverev a free swing. Sinner is the defending champion and will drop his 500 points from last year’s title, while Zverev only has 100 to defend after a quarter-final run.

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Shanghai is where it gets settled. Zverev defends just 50 points at the Masters 1000 event that runs from 7 to 18 October. If he wins both tournaments and Sinner is beaten before the fourth round in Shanghai, Zverev will rise to world No. 1 on the Monday after the Shanghai final.

Sinner has held the No. 1 ranking for 91 weeks in total since first reaching it on 10 June 2024.

“I’m very happy to be in that conversation”

Zverev himself did not pretend the ranking is out of his thoughts.

“Everyone expected that battle to be between Carlos and Jannik, so I’m very happy to be in that conversation,” he said on the eve of the tournament, speaking to reporters in Beijing.

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“The only thing I can control is playing good tennis, performing well on the court, trying to feel good out there, and doing everything I can to prepare to play good tennis.”

The 2026 season has already given him a basis for that confidence: Roland Garros and the US Open, and 57 match wins to lead the Tour.

“After winning Roland Garros, your mindset changes because you feel like you have already won one, those doubts have disappeared.”

Sinner remains sidelined by the knee

Sinner has not played a competitive match since beating Zverev in the Wimbledon final in July. A right knee problem kept him out of the entire North American hard-court swing, including the US Open, and on 25 September he pulled out of Beijing as well.

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“My knee is not where I would like it to be and I’m not ready to compete yet,” Sinner said in a video message. “I will do everything possible to be there on court as soon as I can.”

His 2026 record stands at 44-3 with five Masters 1000 titles, but every week he does not play, points leave his tally and do not come back.

Shang Juncheng waits in round two

Zverev faces 21-year-old home player Shang Juncheng in the second round after the Chinese wild card edged past Sebastian Baez 5-7, 6-3, 7-5. Shang is ranked 250th in the world; Norrie, who pushed Zverev to a tie-break, is ranked 40th.

Zverev admitted he had not expected to feel this comfortable so quickly.

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“I am surprised because I didn’t think I played well because I only arrived two days ago. I feel a bit jet-lagged and came from an indoor tournament to an outdoor tournament, but I felt good on the court and I felt it was a high-level match.”

The China Open final is scheduled for 6 October, with Shanghai starting the following day.

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