Of every sanction on the table after the Premier League’s independent commission ruled against Manchester City, only one would land anywhere near the club’s actual balance sheet. Not the fine. Not a transfer ban. The drop.
Analysis published this week by The i Paper puts a figure on it: more than £500m in lost revenue across broadcast money, Champions League earnings and renegotiated or terminated commercial deals, in a single season out of the Premier League.
The Premier League commission found Manchester City guilty on 114 of the 115 charges last week, concluding that the club had used sham commercial contracts between 2009-10 and 2017-18 to disguise more than £900m of funding from its Abu Dhabi owners. The club lodged a formal appeal at 7pm local time on 1 October, insisting the ruling is “unsafe” and that the opinion “contains clear material errors, of law, principle and fact.”
Where the £500m starts
Start with the broadcast collapse. Manchester City banked £278.6m from broadcasting in 2024-25, according to the club’s own annual report. A relegated club’s first-year parachute payment runs at around £48m, a gap of more than £200m before a ball is kicked in the Championship.
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Champions League revenue would go next. City’s European income can push past £65m even in a modest campaign, and well above £100m in a deep run. A Championship side plays no continental football at all.
Then there is the commercial side. City generated £694.1m in total revenue in 2024-25, and the shirt, stadium and training-ground deals that drive that number are priced against Premier League broadcast reach and European nights.
Sponsors with escape routes
Most top-tier sponsorship contracts contain clauses that allow partners to terminate or sharply reduce payments if the club they are backing falls out of the Premier League. A season of Championship fixtures would not deliver what the current agreements were sold on.
Etihad Airways, the club’s principal sponsor, has already said it is “deeply concerned” by the commission’s findings and will “seek the relevant legal counsel on the options and recourse available to protect its interests.” The airline categorically rejects any suggestion it was involved in improper commercial arrangements. The threat of legal action from City’s biggest sponsor, directed at the league rather than the club, is itself a measure of how far the commercial fallout has already travelled.
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The deduction that would do it
Finance expert Kieran Maguire has estimated that a points deduction of 40 to 60 points would be proportionate to the scale of the breaches, according to Al Jazeera’s analysis of the verdict. Everton were docked 10 points for a single breach of the same rules. Nottingham Forest took a four-point deduction on the same basis. A multiple of those penalties applied across 114 upheld charges is what makes relegation a modelled scenario rather than a theoretical one.
Enzo Maresca, who succeeded Pep Guardiola as head coach at the end of June, inherited a squad built around Champions League football and multi-year commercial renewals. The appeal hearing will remain confidential until an outcome is published.
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