Eighteen days out from the ceremony at the London Palladium, the man who holds the trophy has already been written out of the race.
Canal+ journalist Bertrand Latour has predicted that Dembélé will finish fourth or fifth when the 70th Ballon d’Or is handed out on Monday, 26 October. Latour, speaking on the French broadcaster, defended Dembélé against critics of his tournament with the national team and called him one of the four or five best players in the world, but the verdict pointed clearly away from a second trophy.
That verdict rests less on Paris than on Dallas. France were eliminated 2-0 by Spain in the World Cup semi-final on 14 July, with Spain’s defense stifling the attacking trio of Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise. Mikel Oyarzabal struck a 22nd-minute penalty and Pedro Porro added a second after the break. Voting among the 100 international journalists did not close until 28 September, leaving the semi-final defeat fresh in the ballot.
The equalizer in Budapest
Dembélé’s club season is not in doubt. He was involved in 31 goals for PSG across the 2025-26 campaign, 20 of them his own, in 40 matches in all competitions. No PSG player contributed more.
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He also scored the equalizing penalty in a 1-1 draw against Arsenal at the Puskás Aréna before Luis Enrique’s side won the Champions League final 4-3 on penalties in Budapest on 30 May, retaining the trophy and giving Dembélé a second consecutive winners’ medal.
Nine PSG men on the ballot
France Football named nine PSG players on the 30-man shortlist, more than any other club. That weight of nominees also splits the Paris vote.
Harry Kane is the bookmakers’ favorite after scoring 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich. Lamine Yamal, who finished runner-up to Dembélé last year, was involved in 41 goals for Barcelona with 24 strikes and 17 assists. Mbappé scored 42 for Real Madrid across all competitions. At Bayern, Olise registered 22 goals and 26 assists, a return no other player in Europe’s five biggest leagues reached last season.
Asked by France Football to pick his top three, Dembélé did not name himself. He chose Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Kane and Mbappé.
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No one has done it since Ronaldo
A back-to-back men’s winner would be the first since Cristiano Ronaldo retained the award in 2017. In every ceremony since, the trophy has moved to a new name.
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony begins at the London Palladium on Monday, 26 October.
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