The New Zealander is not pretending the speculation is not there. He is just refusing to let it set the agenda.

Lawson has steered Racing Bulls to the brink of fifth in the constructors’ championship, which would be a team-best finish, and sits ninth in the drivers’ standings. His verdict on his own future, delivered to RacingNews365 this week, was deliberately understated.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen next year, but for me, it’s honestly not really what I’m thinking about now,” Lawson said.

“I think that’s something that has always been sort of talked about, and obviously you always try to cover your bases. But right now, not too much.”

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A career-best 75 points

Lawson has scored in 12 of 17 grands prix and three sprint events for a career-high 75-point haul, with a career-equaling fifth at Monaco and the Singapore Sprint as the standouts.

Sky Sports’ Ted Kravitz, speaking after the Singapore weekend, called the alternative absurd.

“There’s no way they’re going to get rid of Liam Lawson when he’s delivering results like this,” Kravitz said.

“Whoever thought that he’s going to lose his place to Nikola Tsolov must be bonkers.”

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Schumacher argues the opposite

Ralf Schumacher reached the opposite conclusion. The former F1 driver told PlanetF1 in early October that Red Bull’s junior team exists precisely to make bold calls.

“I don’t think he’ll stay. I believe Arvid Lindblad will stay, and that they’ll give Tsolov a chance,” Schumacher said.

“This is the junior team, and that’s what it’s there for. If I want to focus on the next superstar, I have to make a change now.”

Schumacher’s reasoning rests on Isack Hadjar being retained at Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen for 2027, which in his reading already caps Lawson’s ceiling at the senior team.

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Tsolov waits in F2

Tsolov leads Formula 2 by 20 points with six wins in his rookie season. Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane has been explicit about where the 19-year-old Bulgarian sits in the queue.

“He’s next in line, I think it’s fair to say,” Permane said.

Tsolov himself has avoided fueling the speculation.

“Obviously I try to distance myself from it, isolate a little bit. The noise can really get you into trouble,” Tsolov told Formula1.com.

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“There’s nothing that has been talked about, nothing clear. It’s just keep doing what you’re doing.”

Permane put the arithmetic plainly on 14 October, speaking to reporters about the three-into-two problem of keeping Lawson, Lindblad and Tsolov.

“I think everyone knows we’ve got two fantastic drivers… three doesn’t fit into two, of course,” Permane said.

“It’s going to be in the coming weeks, let’s say. I mean, we’re in no rush.”

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