A win on Sunday night would push Barcelona nine points clear of Real Madrid in La Liga with just 10 of 38 league games played. Hansi Flick’s champions sit on a perfect 27 points from nine matches; Mourinho’s side are third on 21, already behind Atletico Madrid in second.
The last time Real Madrid were this far adrift of a La Liga leader at this stage was 2012-13, which was also under Mourinho. That gap was eight points. Madrid finished the season 15 behind champions Barcelona.
Barcelona chase a record no one has ever set
Barcelona’s 9-0-0 start matches an opening run only one other team has managed in La Liga history: Real Madrid in 1968-69. A tenth straight league win on Sunday would put Flick’s side alone in the record book as the first club ever to open a Spanish top-flight campaign with 10 consecutive wins.
Opta’s simulation now puts Barcelona’s title-defence probability at 77.1 percent. For the Clasico itself the model gives Flick’s side a 56 percent chance of victory, with Madrid at 24.8 percent and a draw at 19.2 percent.
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Barcelona have scored 39 goals in nine league matches, averaging a touch over four per game, with Raphinha’s 12 goals leading La Liga’s scoring chart.
Mbappe is Real Madrid’s counter-argument
Kylian Mbappe arrives in form. The France captain has scored 12 goals in 12 appearances this season, including in Real Madrid’s 4-1 La Liga win over Sevilla and a 4-1 Champions League rout of RB Leipzig. His nine La Liga goals in nine matches put him second in the scoring race behind Raphinha.
He also has history against this specific opponent. Mbappe has scored eight goals in three career visits to Barcelona’s stadium: a hat-trick for Paris Saint-Germain in 2021, two more for PSG in 2024, and a hat-trick for Real Madrid in a 4-3 loss there in 2024-25.
The caveat is the broader record. Since joining Real Madrid, Mbappe has lost five of his six Clasicos. His overall ledger against Barcelona reads three wins, one draw and six defeats in 10 games.
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Vinicius serves his four-match ban
Mourinho is without Vinicius Junior. The Brazil forward is serving a four-match suspension imposed by Spain’s football federation after a red card against Villarreal for pulling Nathan Saliba’s hair in the build-up to a disallowed goal. Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Raul Asencio are also unavailable.
Flick has his own absentees. Dani Olmo, Andreas Christensen and Eric Garcia are all out, with Jules Kounde a serious doubt over an ankle issue. Barcelona have still scored at least two goals in every La Liga match this season.
Kick-off at Camp Nou is on Sunday evening, matchday 10 for a Barcelona side that has won every La Liga game so far.
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