Bayer leverkusen Bayern, Bundesliga, Mainz 05, Leipzig

Predicted Bundesliga Final Standings in 2025/26 Season

August 20, 2025 Aksel Kryhlmand

As the 2025-26 Bundesliga season kicks off, Bayern Munich once again look like the team to beat. Vincent Kompany’s men reclaimed the Meisterschale last year, and with Harry Kane still firing and new arrival Luis Díaz adding flair, the Rekordmeister start as heavy favourites. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund are expected to push closest, though both face challenges after summer departures.

The fight for Champions League places looks wide open, with Eintracht Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and RB Leipzig all in the mix. At the other end, newly promoted Köln and Hamburg face daunting battles to avoid an immediate return to the second tier. After 10,000 simulations, Opta’s supercomputer has projected how the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is likely to unfold. Here’s the full predicted table, from bottom to top.

18. Köln – 34.4 Points (Relegated)

Fc Koln — Vitalii Vitleo / Shutterstock.com

Fresh from winning the 2. Bundesliga title, Köln face a tough challenge back in the top flight. They are the most likely side to finish bottom, with a 31.1% chance of automatic relegation.

17. Heidenheim – 34.8 Points (Relegated)

Having survived a dramatic playoff last season, Heidenheim are once again tipped for trouble. The model gives them a 29.5% chance of going down directly, with little margin for error.

16. Hamburger SV – 35.0 Points (Playoff Spot)

Back in the Bundesliga after seven long years, HSV’s return is projected to be rocky. They land in the playoff position in many simulations, though their 59.5% chance of survival gives them hope.

15. St. Pauli – 35.1 Points

One of the season’s big stories is St. Pauli’s first Bundesliga campaign in over a decade. They face a relegation risk (28.4%) but boast a strong defensive record, conceding just 41 goals last season.

14. Hoffenheim – 39.5 Points

Consistently mid-to-lower table in recent years, Hoffenheim are once again forecast to scrape clear of danger. Still, with a 15.2% chance of relegation, they are not entirely safe.

13. Union Berlin – 39.8 Points

Union’s fairy-tale run to Europe feels distant now. Projected to finish 13th, they face a 15.1% relegation risk, a stark contrast to their Champions League campaign only two seasons ago.

12. Augsburg – 40.5 Points

Augsburg are expected to hover around mid-table again. Their 13.5% relegation risk is notable, but survival looks more likely than struggle.

11. Borussia Mönchengladbach – 41.5 Points

Gladbach remain a mid-table side without strong prospects at either end. A 12.3% relegation chance keeps them alert, but they should have enough quality to steer clear of serious trouble.

10. Wolfsburg – 43.3 Points

Projected safely into mid-table, Wolfsburg aren’t seen as contenders for Europe. Their main objective will be consistency under new leadership.

9. Werder Bremen – 46.1 Points

Werder are trending upward and could push higher. They even hold a 12.3% chance of breaking into the top four — a testament to the progress under Horst Steffen.

8. Freiburg – 47.0 Points

Still solid defensively, Freiburg are expected to remain competitive. A 14.3% chance of Champions League football suggests they could punch above their weight once again.

7. Mainz 05 – 49.5 Points

Mainz are tipped for another strong season after finishing fifth last year. With a 20.2% chance of making the top four, they are dark horses for Europe’s elite competition.

6. RB Leipzig – 52.0 Points

Leipzig’s rebuild under Ole Werner is ongoing, and losing Benjamin Sesko hurts. Still, with exciting new signings like Johan Bakayoko, they have a 27.4% chance of finishing in the top four.

5. Stuttgart – 52.6 Points

VfB Stuttgart — EVREN MOREL / Shutterstock.com

Fresh off their DFB-Pokal triumph, Stuttgart continue their rise. With young star Nick Woltemade leading the line, they are genuine contenders for a Champions League return (28.8% chance).

4. Eintracht Frankfurt – 54.9 Points

Last season’s third-place finishers are tipped for another top-four run despite selling Hugo Ekitiké. Jonathan Burkardt’s arrival offers hope of consistent goals, and their top-four chance stands at 36.4%.

3. Borussia Dortmund – 63.0 Points

Under Niko Kovac, Dortmund look far more solid defensively. Serhou Guirassy and new signing Jobe Bellingham add firepower, giving them a 68% chance of finishing in the Champions League spots.

2. Bayer Leverkusen – 63.4 Points

The loss of Xabi Alonso and several key players makes this a transition season, but Ten Hag’s side are still strong. With Patrik Schick leading the line, Leverkusen hold a 16.9% chance of reclaiming the title.

1. Bayern Munich – 72.0 Points (Champions)

The Rekordmeister dominate once again, with a 52.9% chance of lifting the Meisterschale. Kane chases his third Golden Boot, and Luis Díaz adds fresh attacking spark. Bayern’s reign shows no sign of slowing down.