The numbers were laid out by Gazzetta dello Sport this week and they cut both ways. Milan are playing two European competitions this season, and depending on how deep they go in one and whether they reach the other next year, the swing on the balance sheet is close to €100m.
The warning shot came at San Siro on 5 November, when Ferencváros won 2-0 through a Lenny Joseph brace. That was Milan’s third defeat in their opening four Europa League fixtures, leaving them with three points and outside the top 24 at the halfway stage of the league phase.
Milan have banked €14.6m so far
So far the Europa League has brought in €14.6m, not counting matchday takings, built on the guaranteed participation payment plus the €450,000 UEFA pays for every league-phase win. One victory in four has limited the performance pot.
Failing to reach the knockout rounds would cost a further €8m in prize money and ticket revenue combined, according to Gazzetta’s breakdown. Going the other way, winning the competition outright would push the total Europa League haul towards €40m, with the Champions League place that comes attached arguably worth more than the trophy itself.
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The real number is next year’s Champions League
The bigger hit would come in 2027-28. Simply being in next season’s Champions League league phase would bring Milan a participation payment of around €18.6m, and once performance bonuses and the market pool are layered on, the minimum a qualified club can expect is around €40m at today’s rates. From the 2027-28 cycle onwards, with UEFA’s distribution pot rising to roughly €2.8bn, that floor is projected to climb to about €50m.
Add in €10m to €15m in matchday income from six guaranteed home nights in Europe’s top competition, and Gazzetta estimates the gap between qualifying and not qualifying is a minimum of €60m, rising quickly to €70m or €80m if Milan were to progress through the knockouts.
RedBird’s growth plan hinges on a Champions League return
That is why the sporting director’s recruitment plan for next summer is tied directly to what happens between now and May. RedBird’s growth projections for the Rossoneri lean on a return to the Champions League as the baseline, with the record 10-year, €500m Adidas kit deal worth €50m a season only kicking in from 2028-29. Missing out on next season’s Champions League would, on Gazzetta’s reading, cut Milan’s projected revenue growth by more than 20%.
In Serie A, Milan sit fifth on 21 points from 10 matches, six points off Inter in the Champions League places and seven behind leaders Lazio. The next Europa League fixture is away to Olympiacos on 26 November.
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