Manchester City, Arsenal, premier League, Nottingham Forest, Manchester United

Opta Supercomputer predicts a rewritten Premier League landscape

November 25, 2025 Oliver Obel

A dozen rounds into the 2025–26 Premier League season, the table is starting to take on a familiar—but not entirely predictable—shape. Last year’s dramatic title handoff from Manchester City to Arne Slot’s Liverpool still hovers over the league, yet early modelling for this campaign hints that the balance of power could tilt again.

The projections, released by Opta’s Supercomputer model, simulate the remaining fixtures thousands of times. As always, these early-season forecasts shouldn’t be treated as gospel, but the trends they highlight often foreshadow the stories that define spring.

Relegation fight appears less one-sided

The Premier League has seen two straight years in which every promoted club slipped straight back to the Championship—an unusually bleak stretch for newcomers. This season, though, the projections show the first signs of that pattern loosening.

Sunderland are currently favoured to stay up, a testament to the steadiness Régis Le Bris has instilled since their return to the top flight. The Supercomputer doesn’t expect a miracle climb, but it does see enough structure and consistency to break the promoted-teams-all-go-down cycle.

Leeds United and Burnley, however, remain in deep trouble. Both sides are forecast to finish on 34 points, with neither Daniel Farke nor Scott Parker yet finding a formula that sticks over 90 minutes.

West Ham hover just above them. The club’s attempt to reboot midseason—moving on from Graham Potter and turning to Nuno Espírito Santo—has produced little clarity. Even in simulations, their margin for safety looks razor-thin, a jarring contrast to the relative stability of the David Moyes years.

And at the bottom, Wolves continue to sink. With no wins after 12 attempts, the model still places them last, even allowing for the possibility that Rob Edwards could inject some sort of spark. Right now, the numbers simply don’t see a path out.

A tight cluster near the drop zone

One element that jumps out in Opta’s data: the lower half could become extremely congested. The current simulations show only nine points separating 19th from 16th, an unusually narrow band for this stage.

Nottingham Forest, now under Sean Dyche, may get a short-term stabilising effect from the managerial change, but the model suggests that isolated big results—such as their shocking win at Anfield—won’t necessarily translate into sustained momentum.

Meanwhile, the projections might be underselling Sunderland’s potential. Their underlying metrics and early-season composure suggest a team that could realistically finish several places higher than the model’s conservative 15th-place call.

Midtable: Progress for some, pressure for others

Fulham are projected to slip one spot to 14th, reflecting a team that tends to hover in the midtable void: rarely disastrous, rarely transformative.

Everton remain a more complicated case. With new ownership, a relocated fanbase still learning its way around Bramley-Moore Dock, and the arrival of star names like Jack Grealish, expectations have risen. Yet the Supercomputer still places them in 13th—an outcome their supporters would likely describe as “flat” given the summer investment.

Manchester United find themselves in a similarly frustrating middle ground. Even after steadying their form following a damaging defeat at Brentford, the model predicts an 11th-place finish. For Ruben Amorim, who has so far resisted major tactical shifts despite a revamped attacking corps, that kind of midtable stall would raise uncomfortable questions.

Brentford, amid a transition that includes significant departures, are forecast to finish 12th. Given the scale of change around the club, that would quietly qualify as a success.

Top-half movements reflect changing ambitions

The projections place Tottenham in 10th, a ranking that neatly captures the tension of Thomas Frank’s early tenure: better than last year, but still carrying an undercurrent of instability.

Bournemouth, by contrast, seem to have settled into a confident rhythm under Andoni Iraola and are projected to hold ninth place—a continuation of the upward arc that has quietly become one of the league’s steadier stories.

Newcastle United slide to eighth after a fractured summer window and erratic performances, though their ceiling remains high enough to create volatility in the simulations.

Brighton, operating with a more predictable identity under Fabian Hürzeler, are tipped for seventh, a finish that would reaffirm the club’s post–De Zerbi evolution without the old overachiever glow.

The upward mover in the top half is Crystal Palace, whose FA Cup triumph last spring seems less like a one-off and more like the beginning of something solid. The model gives them sixth place and a return to the Europa League.

And in fifth, Aston Villa continue to lean on Unai Emery’s knack for course correction, recovering from a sluggish start to re-enter the European conversation.

A title race with a new favourite and a familiar challenger

The race at the top looks different from the one that defined last season.

Despite a lavish summer that brought Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak and several other marquee additions to Anfield, Liverpool are projected to finish fourth. A difficult run—six losses in seven league matches—has left their underlying numbers badly bruised.

Chelsea, despite high preseason optimism, are forecast to take third under Enzo Maresca. While that might disappoint a fanbase that expected more, the stability of back-to-back Champions League qualifications shouldn’t be dismissed.

Manchester City, helped by Erling Haaland’s renewed scoring burst, appear to be climbing again, but the simulations show their recovery falling short of the summit. Pep Guardiola’s side are tipped to finish second.

That leaves Arsenal, who the Supercomputer gives a projected 81 points, with a double-digit cushion at the top. After several years of near misses, Opta’s model now sees Mikel Arteta’s side as the most complete team in the league—defensively sound, tactically settled, and deep enough to withstand injuries.

If that projection holds, Arsenal’s long wait for another Premier League crown could finally end.

Sources: Opta, Reuters, BBC, AP