How each driver can win the 2025 F1 Championship

December 1, 2025 Oliver Obel

The 2025 Formula One championship will now be settled in a single, high-stakes showdown next weekend in Abu Dhabi, after Max Verstappen’s victory in Qatar tightened the battle at the top of the standings.

As reported by BBC Sport, Sky Sports, and Reuters, Verstappen’s seventh win of the season has closed the gap to championship leader Lando Norris to just 12 points, while Oscar Piastri remains only four points further behind.

The result has created one of the rare three-way finales in modern F1. Norris retains the mathematical advantage heading into Yas Marina, but Verstappen’s late-season surge and Piastri’s consistency mean all three drivers arrive with a realistic if drastically different path to the world championship.

With only 16 points covering the trio, even small strategic decisions or a single on-track incident could determine who lifts the trophy.

Lando Norris: The front-runner with the clearest path

Norris leads the standings on 408 points, and the title remains his to lose.

Norris becomes world champion if:

He finishes on the podium. Any P1–P3 result guarantees the championship regardless of Verstappen or Piastri.
He finishes 4th or 5th, provided Verstappen does not finish second.
He finishes as low as 11th, but only if:
Verstappen ends up 4th or lower, and
Piastri finishes no higher than 3rd.

In multiple tie-break scenarios outlined by BBC Sport, Norris would prevail due to having more second-place finishes than Verstappen.

Max Verstappen: Still in range for a fifth straight crown

Verstappen sits second with 396 points, 12 behind Norris after his crucial win in Qatar.

Verstappen becomes world champion if:

He wins the race and Norris finishes 4th or lower.
He finishes 2nd, so long as:
Norris finishes 6th or worse, and
Piastri does not finish higher than 3rd.
He finishes 3rd, but only if:
Norris slips to 9th, scoring two points, and
Piastri finishes 2nd or lower.
Norris fails to finish (DNF) and Verstappen takes 3rd, which would give him enough points to overhaul the Briton.

As Sky Sports noted, Verstappen’s late-season momentum keeps him firmly in contention, though he now relies on the McLaren pair stumbling.

Oscar Piastri: The outsider with a narrow but real path

Piastri holds 392 points and needs the most unlikely combination, though Reuters reports he remains mathematically alive.

Piastri becomes world champion if:

He takes pole and wins, with Norris finishing 6th or lower.
He finishes 2nd, but only if:
Norris falls to 9th or worse, and
Verstappen finishes 4th or lower.

These circumstances leave little room for error, but chaotic season finales are nothing new at Yas Marina.

A finale built for drama

With Norris on 408 points, Verstappen on 396, and Piastri on 392, the title could realistically swing on a single pit-stop mistake, a late safety car, or one bold strategic call. All three drivers remain in contention—and all three have something very different to gain or lose when the lights go out in Abu Dhabi.

Sources: BBC Sport, Sky Sports, Reuters