English clubs face high-stakes finale as Champions League paths come into focus

January 28, 2026 Oliver Obel

The final matchday of the Champions League group phase will shape not just who qualifies, but how comfortably several English clubs do so. With UEFA’s expanded format now splitting teams between automatic progression and play-offs, even small margins could have major consequences.

Under the current rules, only the top eight advance directly to the last 16. Teams finishing ninth to 24th must survive a two-legged play-off, adding risk and congestion to an already demanding calendar.

Arsenal in control at the summit

Among the English contingent, Arsenal are the clear outliers. Mikel Arteta’s side sit top of the table and need only a draw against Kairat Almaty on Wednesday to guarantee first place. Even a defeat would still leave them safely inside the top two.

Only Bayern Munich retain a mathematical chance of catching them. Projections published by Football Rankings on X suggest Arsenal are expected to finish first overall.

If that holds, their last-16 opponents would be drawn from Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Inter Milan or Borussia Dortmund. The bracket could also open the door to an all-English quarter-final against either Tottenham or Manchester City, depending on how the play-offs unfold.

Narrow margins elsewhere

The picture is far less settled for the remaining English sides. Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all sit within a tightly packed section of the table where qualification scenarios hinge on both results and goal difference.

Liverpool are currently fourth and would secure automatic passage with a win in their final fixture. A draw could also prove enough, but only if results elsewhere fall their way.

Tottenham, one place lower, face Eintracht Frankfurt away. A point may be sufficient, though victory would remove uncertainty. Spurs eliminated Frankfurt 2-1 on aggregate last season under Ange Postecoglou, but their form under Thomas Frank makes repeating that feat a stiffer task.

Chelsea, eighth and level on points with several rivals, appear the most vulnerable of the group. They are likely to need a win away at Napoli to avoid slipping into the play-off positions.

City and Newcastle chasing certainty

Manchester City’s route is more complicated still. Sitting 11th, Pep Guardiola’s side must beat Galatasaray at the Etihad Stadium and hope at least three teams above them fail to win. Goal difference could also come into play against Atletico Madrid and Atalanta.

Newcastle, currently seventh, face a similar balancing act but with arguably the toughest opponent. Eddie Howe’s side travel to holders Paris Saint-Germain knowing a positive result at the Parc des Princes would keep them clear of the play-offs.

What the projections suggest

According to Football Rankings’ projected table, Chelsea would finish 11th, setting up a play-off tie against Newcastle. UEFA regulations allow clubs from the same country to meet at that stage. The winner would then face either Barcelona or PSG in the last 16.

Liverpool are projected to finish third after defeating Qarabag. That could lead to a last-16 meeting with Qarabag again, or alternatively Marseille, Juventus or Atalanta. Should they progress, a quarter-final against Barcelona, PSG, Chelsea or Newcastle is among the possibilities.

With so many English clubs clustered together, the final round may determine not only who advances but who avoids an early domestic showdown in Europe.

Sources: Football Rankings (X), UEFA competition rules, club match data