McGregor vs Diaz 3 may never happen

March 18, 2026 Oliver Obel

Nate Diaz’s decision to fight outside the UFC may have effectively closed the door on a long-discussed trilogy bout with Conor McGregor.

The two fighters are tied 1-1 after their meetings in 2016, when Diaz submitted McGregor at UFC 196 before McGregor won a five-round decision in their rematch later that year. A third fight has since been one of the most anticipated matchups in MMA, but it has never materialized.

Now, Diaz’s latest career move may have made it even less likely.

The 38-year-old is set to return to MMA on a Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) card broadcast on Netflix, where he will face Mike Perry. The event is also expected to feature appearances from Francis Ngannou, as well as a reported main event between Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano.

According to MMA journalist Ariel Helwani, Diaz had been in discussions about a potential UFC return before agreeing to the Perry fight. However, analyst Luke Thomas suggested the decision to sign with MVP could have long-term consequences.

“The way I heard it, Diaz taking this fight closes the door on a UFC return completely,” Thomas wrote on X. “So whatever Diaz is making or planning for future fights, he’s doing so knowing there’s no UFC homecoming possible now.”

In a separate post, Thomas added: “I think they're mad at him for taking the Jake Paul fight and then passing them over to go do this show is, as I understand, something they won't look back from.”

Diaz had previously left the UFC after a win over Tony Ferguson in 2022 and later boxed Jake Paul, signaling a shift toward opportunities outside the promotion.

McGregor, meanwhile, remains under contract with the UFC but has not fought since 2021. He was scheduled to face Michael Chandler in 2024 before withdrawing due to injury, and the bout has yet to be rebooked.

While a trilogy fight once seemed inevitable given the rivalry’s commercial appeal, Diaz’s move into a rival promotional orbit suggests the window for a third meeting may now be closing.

Sources: SportsBible, Ariel Helwani reporting, Luke Thomas (X)