What happens if Arsenal and Man City draw on points and goal difference?

April 13, 2026 Oliver Obel

An extraordinary and previously unseen finish to the Premier League season is now a mathematical possibility as Arsenal and Manchester City push toward the title.

As first highlighted by GiveMeSport, the two sides could, in an extreme scenario, be separated by a playoff match if standard tiebreakers fail to split them.

A razor-thin margin at the top

Arsenal currently lead the table on 70 points with a goal difference of +38. Manchester City remain in pursuit, sitting six points behind with a game still to play, and only a narrow gap in goal difference separating the two teams.

That margin leaves little room for error. Their upcoming meeting at the Etihad Stadium could prove decisive particularly for City, who may need a win to keep pace if Arsenal maintain their form elsewhere.

How the title would be decided

If the teams finish level on points, the Premier League applies a series of tiebreakers.

First comes goal difference, where Arsenal currently hold a slight advantage. If that is also equal, total goals scored becomes the next measure an area where City currently edge ahead by a single goal.

Should both metrics still fail to separate them, attention turns to head-to-head results. The sides drew 1-1 in their first meeting this season, meaning another identical result would leave the situation unresolved.

When things get unusual

From there, the rules become far less familiar.

If the second match ends in a draw with a different scoreline, away goals in those head-to-head fixtures would be considered. And if parity still remains, the title would be decided by a one-off playoff at a neutral venue something that has never happened in Premier League history.

While such a chain of events is highly unlikely, it underlines just how tight this season’s race has become.

Close finishes are nothing new

Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, are no strangers to dramatic title battles. They finished just one point ahead of Liverpool in both the 2018–19 and 2021–22 seasons.

Historically, one-point margins have decided the title only a handful of times, including Arsenal’s triumph in 1997–98.

The most iconic finish remains the 2011–12 campaign, when Sergio Aguero’s stoppage-time goal secured City the title on goal difference over Manchester United, with both teams ending on 89 points.

Sources: GiveMeSport, Premier League