Arsenal’s title run now depends on multiple factors

April 27, 2026 Aksel Kryhlmand

Arsenal's Premier League title aspirations have taken a significant hit, with Manchester City now sitting atop the table, albeit only on goals scored. Both clubs are level on 70 points with an identical +37 goal difference, but City's superior attacking output has nudged them ahead after their recent 1-0 victory over Burnley.

The Gunners, who spent an impressive 209 days at the summit, find themselves in an all-too-familiar chasing position, having been leapfrogged by Pep Guardiola's relentless side. Just over a month ago, Arsenal held a commanding 10-point lead and were even touted as potential quadruple winners. However, a dramatic downturn in form, including back-to-back league defeats, a Carabao Cup final loss to City, and an FA Cup quarter-final exit to Championship outfit Southampton, has cast a shadow over their campaign.

A shift in strategy required

The narrow margins of Arsenal's victories this season are now under scrutiny, particularly with goal difference potentially deciding the title race, as it famously did in 2011-12 when Sergio Aguero's last-gasp goal snatched the trophy from Manchester United for City. Arsenal has won 10 Premier League games by a single goal this season, accounting for 48% of their total wins. This percentage is the highest for a potential champion since Leicester City's surprise triumph in 2016 (61%).

Former Manchester United star Wayne Rooney, who was part of the squad that finished second to City on goal difference in 2011-12, believes Arsenal must adapt their approach. "Arsenal have been trying to nick 1-0 wins but they need to change that mindset and go at teams and win by three or four goals," Rooney stated on the BBC's Wayne Rooney podcast, as reported by BBC Sport. Statistics further underline this point, with Arsenal on course to be the lowest-scoring Premier League champions from open play, averaging just 1.15 open play goals per game. The fewest goals from open play scored by a title-winning side was 46 by Leicester in the 2015-16 season.

Opportunity knocks for Arsenal

With five games remaining, Arsenal faces a critical juncture, starting with home fixtures against Newcastle and Fulham within a week. These matches present a prime opportunity to not only secure vital points but also significantly boost their goal difference. Newcastle has struggled recently, winning just three of their last 12 league games and keeping only one clean sheet since January 18. Fulham, currently 12th in the table, has conceded 46 goals this season, more than relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest.

Despite the recent setbacks, including Kai Havertz missing two crucial chances against City, there remains a defiant spirit within the Arsenal camp. "It's not done," midfielder Declan Rice declared after the recent loss to their title rivals. However, history is not on their side; Pep Guardiola's Manchester City has never failed to win the league after being top after 33 rounds. For Arsenal to break this trend and claim their first Premier League title in two decades, a more aggressive, goal-hungry approach in their final fixtures may be their only path to glory.

Sources: www.bbc.com, www.arsenal.com