The ballots have been in since the end of September, and the first voices from the panel are now breaking cover. Héctor González, a journalist at Spain’s Cadena SER who is one of the 100 voters, said this week that he had been checking in with other panellists about how they filled theirs in.
“When they’ve spoken with other colleagues who voted, the consensus is that Harry Kane is way ahead,” González said on the Spanish radio station.
His reading of the panel room writes off one of the pre-season favourites. Real Madrid finished the 2025-26 season without a trophy, and France were beaten in the fourth-place play-off at the 2026 World Cup. For voters who weigh silverware heavily, González argued, that finishes Kylian Mbappé’s case.
“That’s what we’re told, because the Frenchman’s biggest flaw is that he hasn’t won any titles with Real Madrid or the French national team. Therefore, it seems we can rule Mbappé out of the Ballon d’Or race, and it all comes down to a head-to-head.”
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González, who said his own instinct would have been to vote for Lamine Yamal because he rates him the better player, believes the panel will come down for Harry Kane on numbers and trophies.
36 Bundesliga goals and two major trophies
Kane finished 2025-26 as the Bundesliga’s top scorer for a third straight season with 36 goals in 31 league appearances, enough to claim a second European Golden Shoe. Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, and reached the Champions League semi-final before going out to Paris Saint-Germain.
Yamal’s case rests on different silverware. The Barcelona forward won La Liga and was named the league’s Player of the Season, and Spain lifted the World Cup. He was also runner-up in the previous Ballon d’Or vote.
Bookmakers in step with the voters
The betting market has swung in both directions during October, but the latest prices sit where González’s panel soundings do. Kane went back to the top of the market on 14 October at 1/2, with Yamal drifting to 2/1 across UK betting sites tracked by OLBG.
Kane himself has refused to campaign publicly.
“The Ballon d’Or is not in my hands. I’ve done what I can do in terms of putting in the performances,” he told reporters.
The ceremony leaves Paris
The 2026 edition is the first held outside France. The ceremony at the London Palladium starts at 8pm local time on Monday 26 October, with 100 journalists from 100 countries having ranked their top ten from the 30-man shortlist on a 15-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-2-1 scale.
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