Harry Kane is not the planet’s most gifted footballer. Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé both start more conversations about pure talent.
But with five days to go until the 70th edition of the ceremony at the London Palladium, Kane is the clear favourite with the bookmakers, and the numbers behind his 2025-26 season are the reason why.
The Bayern Munich striker scored 73 goals in 65 appearances for club and country last season, the second-highest single-season tally since 2000, behind only Lionel Messi’s 82 in 69 matches for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-12. One goal every 71 minutes across a 10-month calendar.
61 goals for Bayern, a club record
Kane scored 61 of those 73 for Bayern, a club record. He won his third consecutive Torjägerkanone, the Bundesliga’s top-scorer trophy, with 36 goals and finished nine ahead of Erling Haaland in the European Golden Shoe.
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He added 14 Champions League goals in 13 games. In the DFB-Pokal, the German cup, he scored 10 times in six matches, including a hat-trick in the final as Bayern completed the domestic double.
England took him to a third-place finish at the World Cup, where he scored six goals in seven appearances at the finals.
The case against is still there
Nineteen of Kane’s 73 goals came from the penalty spot. Neither Yamal nor Mbappé operates with the quiet, methodical register that Kane brings to a highlight reel. Awards built on first-place votes tend to reward players who make jurors catch their breath, not those who tap in from six yards.
The Ballon d’Or’s own three criteria are listed in a specific order: individual performances first, collective performances and titles second, class and fair play third. One hundred journalists, one from each of the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations, rank ten names from a 30-player shortlist.
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Trophies are the second criterion, not the first, which is why voters have at times rewarded a brilliant player on a losing team. In 2026 the brilliant player and the trophy haul happen to be the same person.
Kane leaves the verdict to the jurors
Kane addressed the race in an interview with Marca in September.
“I’ve never liked to talk about myself too much. The only thing I would say is that last season was incredible, on a personal level and as a team. It was, by far, the best season of my life,” he said.
“It’s true that to finish on 73 goals, the second-highest tally in history, speaks for itself.”
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“But the Ballon d’Or is not in my hands. It depends on the people that vote.”
He would be the first English winner since Michael Owen lifted the award in 2001. The ceremony, the 70th edition of the prize and the first ever staged in London, starts at 8pm local time at the London Palladium on Monday.
