The strongest backers of transgender sports bans in the United States are, statistically, the Americans least sympathetic to women. That is the central finding of a national survey of 1,000 adults written up on October 20 by political scientists Tatishe Nteta, Jesse Rhodes and Lane Cuthbert of the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

The researchers conclude that “people with the most negative attitudes toward women, and toward policies that protect women’s sports, are the most supportive of banning transgender women from women’s sports,” a pattern that cuts against the public rationale lawmakers have offered for the wave of bans across the country.

28% versus 79% on the sexism scale

To gauge hostile sexism, respondents were asked whether they agreed with three statements, including that women seek power by getting control over men, are too easily offended, and exaggerate problems in the workplace.

Among those who scored lowest on that scale, 28% supported banning transgender athletes from women’s sports. Among those who scored highest, support jumped to 79%.

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43% versus 70% on Title IX

The gap reappeared on Title IX, the 1972 federal law that requires equal treatment in school athletics. Supporters of Title IX backed restrictions on transgender athletes at 43%, while opponents of the law backed them at 70%.

The authors note that the pattern “holds even after accounting for other factors like partisanship, ideology and demographic characteristics.”

Attitudes toward women themselves showed a smaller but still meaningful gap. On a feeling thermometer running from 0 to 100, respondents with the most positive views of women supported bans at 45%; those with the most negative views supported them at 58%.

State laws moved faster than the research

Legislation has outrun the public-opinion data. According to the Movement Advancement Project, 27 states now bar transgender students by state law from playing on teams matching their gender identity, with two more enforcing bans through regulation or agency policy.

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On June 30 the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in cases from West Virginia and Idaho that states may require transgender students to compete under the sex assigned at birth. Writing for the majority, Justice Brett Kavanaugh argued that “separate sports teams for biological males and biological females are reasonable”, a decision that the court deliberately kept narrow to athletics.

Voters favour pro-ban candidates

A September poll by The 19th and YouGov, conducted among 2,357 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points, found that 45% of US adults would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports, compared with 20% more likely to back an opponent of such bans. Among Republicans the pro-ban share reached 78%; among independents 46%; among Democrats 19%.

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