Opta’s La Liga 2025-26 predictions: Every club ranked from 20th to 1st

Using 10,000 simulations of the 2025-26 La Liga season, Opta’s supercomputer has projected the final league table based on average points across all outcomes. Here's how each team is expected to perform, starting from the bottom and climbing to the top.

20th: Elche – 41.0 points

Elche are projected to finish last, with just 41 average points from 10,000 simulations. It's a tight margin, but they fall to the bottom due to goal difference and weaker match-up outcomes.

19th: Real Oviedo – 41.0 points

Joining Elche at the foot of the table is newly promoted Real Oviedo, also with 41 average points. Despite a strong push, the supercomputer sees survival just out of reach.

18th: Levante – 42.0 points

Levante are tipped to complete the relegation trio, with only 42 average points. Their narrow gap from safety suggests a season-long battle that may go down to the wire.

Read also: Casemiro silences critics as Manchester United’s revival gains momentum

17th: Getafe – 42.3 points

Barely avoiding the drop, Getafe are forecast to survive by the slimmest of margins. The simulations see them clinging to safety thanks to a few key results.

16th: Espanyol – 43.6 points

Espanyol manage to stay clear of the bottom three, though not by much. The predicted season points indicate another year of struggle, but ultimately survival.

15th: Sevilla – 43.9 points

A surprise name this low, Sevilla continue their recent decline in the simulations. Once a staple of European qualification, they now face a season of mid-table mediocrity.

14th: Girona – 44.2 points

Girona’s campaign is forecast to be stable but unspectacular, sitting safely in the lower mid-table. Their projected performance suggests consistency without major highs or lows.

Read also: England's final qualifiers: Eight players fighting for their World Cup dreams

13th: Alavés – 45.1 points

Alavés are expected to avoid relegation with relative comfort, though they're unlikely to challenge higher up the table. Their results across simulations show a balanced but modest season.

12th: Mallorca – 45.1 points

Level on points with Alavés, Mallorca edge slightly higher in the rankings. Their projected form paints a picture of a side firmly entrenched in mid-table.

11th: Rayo Vallecano – 47.2 points

Rayo Vallecano climb into the top half of the bottom half, if only just. A steady set of results gives them enough to secure a respectable league finish.

10th: Valencia – 49.0 points

Valencia continue their slow rebuild with a predicted 10th-place finish. Their average points suggest a step in the right direction, even if Europe remains out of reach.

Read also: UEFA expands list of banned international fixtures

9th: Real Sociedad – 49.8 points

Real Sociedad narrowly miss the top half of the table according to the model. It’s a disappointing projection for a club accustomed to competing for European places.

8th: Celta Vigo – 51.3 points

Celta Vigo show promise in the simulations, landing a top-half finish. Their projected 51 points reflect a consistent and occasionally dangerous side.

7th: Osasuna – 52.3 points

Osasuna continue their rise with a solid 7th-place projection. Their simulations suggest a team capable of pushing the traditional top clubs on their day.

6th: Real Betis – 55.6 points

Real Betis maintain their status as a strong La Liga force, finishing just outside the top five. With 55.6 average points, they’re comfortably clear of mid-table.

Read also: John Cena completes epic journey to WWE Grand Slam glory

5th: Athletic Club – 61.5 points

Athletic Club impress in Opta’s model, breaking into the top five. Their points average hints at a season of high energy and strong home form.

4th: Villarreal – 62.7 points

Villarreal return to the Champions League spots with a strong projected finish. The Yellow Submarine are expected to edge out close rivals with consistent results.

3rd: Atlético Madrid – 70.7 points

Atlético Madrid secure a top-three finish, though not enough to challenge for the title. Their simulated season shows defensive resilience but less firepower than the top two.

2nd: Real Madrid – 78.4 points

Real Madrid fall just short in the title race, according to Opta’s supercomputer. Despite a high points tally, they’re narrowly edged out by their arch-rivals.

Read also: England star says he won’t speak to Donald Trump at 2026 World Cup

1st: Barcelona – 81.6 points

Barcelona top the simulation rankings with 81.6 average points, emerging as Opta’s title favourites. The data suggests a season of dominance, consistency, and a return to the summit.