The alarm bells in Opta’s 2026-27 model do not ring at the top. They ring in the middle, where Aston Villa, Champions League participants last season, are projected to finish 13th on 48 points, and Tottenham are placed 15th on 45, three points above the drop.
Arsenal, freshly crowned last May after a 22-year wait, top the projections on 79 points. Opta’s supercomputer gives Mikel Arteta’s side a 38.0% chance of retaining the title, with Enzo Maresca’s Manchester City their nearest challengers on 20.5%. Liverpool follow at 9.2%, Manchester United at 6.2%.
The projected 2026-27 final table
- Arsenal: 79 points
- Manchester City: 74
- Liverpool: 59
- Chelsea: 57
- Manchester United: 55
- Newcastle United: 54
- Brighton: 53
- Everton: 51
- Brentford: 50
- Leeds United: 50
- Bournemouth: 49
- Nottingham Forest: 48
- Aston Villa: 48
- Hull City: 47
- Tottenham: 45
- Ipswich Town: 45
- Sunderland: 44
- Crystal Palace: 42
- Fulham: 39
- Coventry City: 38
Opta ran thousands of simulations for every 2026-27 fixture to arrive at each club’s most likely finish, title probability and relegation risk. The model does flag one caveat at the top: Arsenal’s Premier League win percentage drops from 68.7% to 47.6% without William Saliba since his 2022 debut.
The Villa collapse
Villa’s projected drop from continental football to mid-table lines up with a costly summer of departures. Chelsea broke the British transfer record to sign Morgan Rogers for £117m, and Manchester United triggered Youri Tielemans’s £35m release clause.
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Opta’s read is blunt: Villa have “lost too many important cogs in Unai Emery’s machine to compete.”
Tottenham on 2.9%
Tottenham, whom Roberto De Zerbi joined on a five-year deal in March, are backed at just 2.9% for the title. Their projected 45 points would leave them three clear of an 18th-placed Crystal Palace on 42, and only one clear of Sunderland on 44.
Coventry, Fulham and Palace projected down
At the foot of the table, the model tips promoted Coventry City (38 points), Fulham (39) and Crystal Palace (42) to drop. Hull City are given the highest overall relegation probability at 38.7% despite finishing 14th in the projected table on 47, ahead of Ipswich Town (31.2%) and Coventry (27.9%).
Four rounds into the actual 2026-27 season, some of the sharpest forecasts already look prescient. Aston Villa sit 19th on one point, Tottenham 17th on two, and Coventry City remain bottom without a point. Arsenal, meanwhile, have won all four opening fixtures.
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